JPMorgan predicts Fed rate hikes in September and December; market had already priced in 86%.
The market has already priced in an 86% probability, meaning JPMorgan's forecast arrives after the fact.
The bank might as well predict a Spanish victory in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
All that now hangs in the balance is Warsh's credibility. Should he refrain from hiking, his tenure will be prolonged and difficult, while gold will soar. It will also be noteworthy to observe the response from the tweeter-in-chief.
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Australia's trimmed-mean CPI hit 3.7%, the RBNZ held at 2.75% in a 4-3 vote, and oil topped $101 as markets awaited the Fed decision and big tech earnings.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer says Goldman Sachs AI basket is down 22% since early June and its Treasury link has turned negative, making bonds a possible hedge.
RBNZ Governor Breman said further rate hikes are likely and may reach restrictive territory, citing NZ dollar weakness and imported inflation.
Morgan Stanley's chief US economist expects the Fed to hold rates but signal further hikes, with dissents and energy costs as key factors.