Bitcoin's Conflicting Signals: Inflation Weighs, Buyback Failure Bolsters
Bitcoin faces near-term pressure from hot inflation data but long-term support from a failed Treasury buyback program, per CoinShares.
JPMorgan predicts Fed rate hikes in September and December; market had already priced in 86%.
The market has already priced in an 86% probability, meaning JPMorgan's forecast arrives after the fact.
The bank might as well predict a Spanish victory in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
All that now hangs in the balance is Warsh's credibility. Should he refrain from hiking, his tenure will be prolonged and difficult, while gold will soar. It will also be noteworthy to observe the response from the tweeter-in-chief.
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Bitcoin faces near-term pressure from hot inflation data but long-term support from a failed Treasury buyback program, per CoinShares.
August CPI data kept the Fed on track for a rate hike, pushing Treasury yields higher, while US stocks rebounded.
The August US budget deficit was $167 billion, well below the $404 billion consensus, after a near-record $432 billion shortfall the prior month.
Traders see 86.9% chance of Fed rate hike next week, contradicting Trump's promises. Kevin Warsh has yet to cut rates since becoming chair.