Kevin O'Leary: Bitcoin Could Hit $1M Only After Quantum Fears Are Resolved

Bitcoin (BTC) could trade at $1 million, according to Kevin O’Leary, provided that concerns over quantum computing breaking the network’s encryption are addressed.

The O’Leary Ventures chairman outlined that requirement during an appearance on The Rollup podcast at the Avalanche Summit in New York.

How Quantum Uncertainty Blocks Bitcoin’s Path to $1 Million

When questioned directly about Bitcoin ever reaching a seven-figure price, O’Leary responded affirmatively and then identified the hurdle.

“It will if it can resolve the doubt creeping in around quantum computing, you know, breaking the algorithms and the chain and the encryption,” O’Leary said.

On September 19, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $81,177, data from BeInCrypto Markets shows. To reach $1 million, the price would need to rise by roughly 1,132%, or over 12 times its current level.

The risk O’Leary refers to is commonly called Q-Day, which is the point at which a quantum computer gains enough power to crack public-key cryptography. Such a computer has not yet been built.

Size of Bitcoin’s Exposure to Quantum Risk

In May, Glassnode estimated that roughly 6.04 million BTC, representing 30.2% of the total supply, were already located in addresses with visible public keys. These coins would be the most obvious targets when quantum key-breaking becomes feasible.

The hardware threshold has also lowered. In March, Google Quantum AI indicated that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits might be sufficient to break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography. Previous estimates had placed the requirement in the millions.

The timeline for the threat is also shrinking. NIST has called for vulnerable encryption to be phased out by 2030 and banned by 2035. Google has set its own post-quantum migration deadline for 2029. This urgency means preparations must begin even though Q-Day remains several years off.

The concern is already influencing decisions. In February, O’Leary said that institutions would keep Bitcoin allocations at 3% or less until the uncertainty is resolved.

Others have taken more drastic steps. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio due to the same concern.