Kyiv Said to Halt Oil-Refinery Attacks After White House Push

By halting strikes, one supply-risk factor for refined products—especially diesel and other Russian fuel exports—is eliminated, which may ease some pressure on product cracks and distillate prices in the short run. Crude prices are less affected, as energy experts largely blame the US-Iran war for high oil costs. Brent crude’s main price driver is still the disruption to Gulf shipping. Given its informal and likely temporary nature, traders may view the pause as a brief respite rather than a fundamental shift. Should the strikes resume after the midterms, the risk premium on products would return.

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Previous stories:

• A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz caught fire after an incident near Oman, with the cause marked as "unknown" (LOL)
• ANZ has lifted its year-end Brent price forecast to $105, citing a persistently tight physical market.

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Kyiv has quietly shelved its most effective economic weapon until America votes, letting Russia’s refineries get a break while Ukraine’s power grid gets no such respite.

Key takeaways:

• Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries have been halted, according to sources close to the operations.
• The unofficial cessation started early last week and is projected to extend past the US midterm elections, possibly longer.
• President Zelensky stated that his troops have been acting with more caution but have not received an order to discontinue strikes.
• Donald Trump has attributed high global fuel costs to the Ukrainian strikes, whereas energy experts largely indicate the US-Iran conflict as the cause.
• A dispute over Starlink access occurred at the same time as the halt, but US officials said the two matters were unrelated.
• Russia is steadily intensifying its assaults on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Ukraine has suspended its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries after weeks of urging from President Donald Trump, per a Wall Street Journal report (WSJ is gated) that cites individuals informed about the operations.

The informal halt started early last week and is anticipated to continue at least until after Tuesday’s US midterm elections and perhaps deeper into November, the Journal said. Kyiv has not publicly declared a stoppage. In mid-October, according to two military officers cited by the Journal, units responsible for long-range missions were informed that the refinery offensive would be effectively frozen after ongoing operations ended.

This week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian troops have been exercising greater caution lately but have not been instructed to cease refinery attacks; he added that drone units are hitting alternative targets within Russia. The most recent documented strike on Russian oil infrastructure occurred on 20 October, hitting a pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline.

Trump, the Journal reported, has been pressing Kyiv to halt the strikes, pinning high worldwide fuel costs on them, though energy experts largely ascribe those costs to the US-Iran war. Republican candidates worry that fuel prices might damage their midterm prospects, and the administration has relaxed sanctions on Russian diesel. At a meeting with Zelensky in Oslo on 20 October, a US envoy reiterated the call for a halt, per US officials cited in the Journal.

Simultaneous with the halt was a conflict over Ukraine’s Starlink satellite internet access, which was limited in mid-October and completely reinstated on 24 October after Trump requested that Elon Musk remove the restrictions. American officials stated that the Starlink matter and the strike pause were unrelated; some Ukrainian officials, however, described intense pressure to hand Washington a victory. European officials also counseled Kyiv to consider the political sensitivity of energy prices ahead of the election, according to the report.

Zelensky has sought compensation for halting the attacks, favoring a reciprocal energy ceasefire with Russia, but those proposals have advanced little. Russia, in the meantime, has kept up its intensifying missile and drone assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and urban centers.