Macro hurdles keep Solana under pressure despite network upgrade hopes

Solana remains under sustained selling pressure as negative macroeconomic forces and unresolved geopolitical issues weigh on sentiment. The US-Iran talks remain stalled, while the Saudi-Houthi conflict continues, all against a backdrop of oil prices climbing back above $100. The Federal Reserve is dealing with rising inflation that may necessitate larger-than-expected rate increases, and growth worries are increasingly moving to the forefront. This creates an unfavourable environment for cryptocurrencies.

On the fundamentals front, Solana is still expanding in areas such as tokenized equities, stablecoins and institutional uptake. Yet these positive trends are being overshadowed by broader market selling tied to macro factors.

The key Solana-focused event this week is the Alpenglow consensus upgrade, which is set to occur tomorrow. The upgrade is intended to cut transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds by replacing the current consensus mechanism.

Beyond that, the biggest catalyst for the wider crypto market will probably come on Friday with the release of US Flash PMIs, unless a surprising development emerges in US-Iran negotiations.

Should the data come in weak, growth fears could deepen and spark another selloff in SOL. If the data beats expectations, it could produce a short-term relief bounce, but it would not alter the broader outlook, since stronger economic activity combined with persistent inflation would only reinforce the case for Fed tightening.

SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

If the price reaches that level, buyers are likely to step in with a clearly defined risk below support, positioning for a move up to 148.00. Sellers, conversely, will want to see a break lower to ramp up bearish bets targeting the major upward trendline next.

SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The 4-hour chart shows the price broke above the downward trendline that had been dictating the bearish structure. This could signal waning bearish momentum and a possible pullback to the 113.00 area. If that level is reached, sellers are expected to enter with a defined risk above 113.00, targeting a drop to 97.00. Buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to boost bullish bets heading toward 148.00 next.

SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The 1-hour chart reveals a minor downward trendline shaping the current bearish price action. Sellers will likely continue to lean on that trendline with a defined risk above it, aiming to push down to the 97.00 support. Buyers will look for a break above the trendline to get involved for a rally to 113.00 next. The red lines mark the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Thursday brings the latest US Jobless Claims data, and the week wraps up on Friday with the US Flash PMIs.