Three Warning Signs Emerge for XRP as Demand Weakens

The crypto market faced headwinds in October, and XRP (XRP) was not spared. It fell by double digits over the month, with a 4.81% decline in the last seven days bringing it to $1.30.

The decline coincides with three simultaneous bearish indicators for the token. Whale outflows from exchanges are shrinking, a greater volume of tokens is arriving on those platforms, and demand for spot ETFs has flattened.

Binance Whale Activity Signals Wait for Lower Prices

The initial warning appears on Binance. On-chain analyst Darkfost notes that whale outflows from the exchange have dropped to a five-year low. The 90-day average sits at $49.7 million, a steep fall from the $3.5 billion seen in February 2025.

Darkfost characterized the prior wave as significant accumulation. The analyst believes whales are likely biding their time for a more attractive entry price.

XRP has weathered this bear market better than some assets, leaving its price insufficiently low to lure them back. During the bear markets of 2022 and 2023, in contrast, prices were appealing enough to trigger heavy accumulation by whales.

“From a long-term perspective, this suggests XRP could lack buying volume without whale support. That said, it’s not a hard rule, sometimes the trend reverses precisely when volumes and interest collapse,” the analyst added.

Growing XRP Reserves on Exchanges Signal Potential Selling Pressure

A second bearish sign comes from exchange inflow data. According to Arab Chain, crypto exchanges took in 6.05 billion XRP over 30 days, marking a seven-month peak. Binance accounted for 2.46 billion XRP of this total, representing roughly 40%.

The analyst cautioned that higher deposit levels do not necessarily indicate imminent selling. The same pattern can result from wallet transfers, asset redistribution, or increased trading activity.

Nonetheless, the fresh deposits augment the XRP reserves already held on exchanges. Consistent institutional demand would make absorbing these tokens easier, but spot ETF flows are heading in the opposite direction.

ETF Inflows Halt Following Best Run Since December

US spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $1.84 million in the week ending October 16, according to SoSoValue. This outflow snapped a consecutive 13-week period of inflows.

Flows have diminished throughout October, recording zero net movement in four of the previous seven trading sessions. Consequently, October inflows amount to only $10.25 million thus far, compared to $121.4 million in September.

Net assets for the funds declined to $1.48 billion from a peak of $1.77 billion on September 25. With cumulative inflows showing little change, the drop in XRP's price was responsible for the bulk of the decline.

Historical Data Offers XRP Little Comfort Entering November

The recent price softness is reflected in XRP's monthly performance. August and September, which represented the best consecutive period for ETF inflows since December, were also the token's top-performing months in 2026.

According to CryptoRank, XRP returned 30% in August and 7.95% in September. However, it has lost 12.5% of its value starting from October 1.

Historical patterns provide little reassurance for the coming weeks. XRP has concluded eight of its thirteen Octobers in negative territory, and its median return for November stands at minus 10%.

The average gain of 80.2% in November appears robust, but this metric is inflated by exceptional rallies in 2013, 2020, and 2024.

A recovery in whale outflows or a resumption of ETF inflows would provide the initial indication that XRP buyers are re-entering the market.