Moonshot AI's $50 Billion Valuation: A Question of Peers

DeepSeek is about to finalise a funding round exceeding 80 billion yuan ($11.9 billion) this month, sources told Reuters. Meanwhile, Moonshot AI has submitted a confidential filing for a Hong Kong IPO after a private fundraising that gave it a $50 billion price tag, according to Bloomberg.

Each startup generates around $1 billion in annualised revenue. Investors are applying a multiple of 50 to 74 times that figure, which is steeper than the valuations of OpenAI or Anthropic at nearly $1 trillion.

DeepSeek's Funding Exceeded Its Initial Target by 60%

DeepSeek began the round in July at a 500 billion yuan ($74 billion) valuation, Reuters reported. That came just a month after it had wrapped up its first external raise of about $7.4 billion.

The initial aim was 50 billion yuan. However, demand pushed total commitments beyond 80 billion, and Bloomberg indicated the final amount could reach 100 billion.

Three key factors shape the outlook.

• The investors involved. Tencent and battery manufacturer CATL were among the biggest backers, Bloomberg reported.
• The listing venue. DeepSeek has appointed CITIC Securities to advise on a possible IPO on Shanghai's STAR Market. Neither a timeline nor a size has been determined.
• What spurred interest. In September, the company launched the V4.1-Flash model, which reduced the performance gap with US labs, and formed a Huawei partnership to develop tools for Ascend chips.

Moonshot Aims for $5 Billion in Hong Kong by March

Moonshot, the company behind the Kimi models, completed its last private fundraising at $50 billion, up from $31.5 billion over the summer, Bloomberg reported. It is targeting an IPO in the first quarter of 2027 and plans to raise as much as $5 billion.

Bank of America is leading the process, with CICC, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs acting as sponsors. Meetings with potential investors are scheduled to start this month.

Those discussions come amid a regulatory probe. Chinese authorities have launched a data-security investigation into both DeepSeek and Moonshot, capping a notable period for Kimi since the K3 model was unveiled in July.

Is $50 Billion a Bargain? It Depends on Which Side of the Pacific You Look

Comparing the four labs side by side, the answer shifts depending on the chosen peer group.

On their most recent funding rounds, the two Chinese firms cost three to five times more per dollar of revenue than their US counterparts. Based on the latest valuations, that gap narrows to about two to four times.

Within China, Moonshot is the cheaper option by about a third.

Two factors help reduce the disparity.

Growth prospects. Moonshot is targeting $2 billion in annualised revenue by December. If achieved, its multiple would drop by half to 25 times, though that remains well above Anthropic's 15 times. DeepSeek's revenue run rate roughly doubled from its August level in a few months. OpenAI's own run rate rose by more than 70% since July, which helped compress its multiple.

Profit margins. DeepSeek's API business has an 82.9% gross margin, according to The Information. Zhipu, the nearest comparable listed firm, operates on a 26% gross margin and has lost roughly HK$1 trillion in market value since June, 36kr reported. Moonshot has not disclosed its margins.

The Figure That Will Define the Roadshow

Moonshot's December revenue number will anchor its IPO prospectus. DeepSeek's October valuation will set the benchmark against which its own listing will be measured.

Both companies are coming to market as Anthropic prepares what could be the largest IPO ever, offering public investors a US comparable at a fraction of the Chinese multiple.

Hong Kong investors paid a scarcity premium for Zhipu when it was one of only two listed AI labs. With Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Anthropic all heading for public markets within a year, that scarcity is fading just as the valuations assume it will persist.