Japan's 30-Year Bond Yield Reached Record 4.223%, Posing Risk to Bitcoin via Carry Trade
Japan's 30-year bond yield hit a record 4.223%, raising safe-haven returns and threatening bitcoin via yen carry trade unwinds.
10 min ago9 min read
Mortgage Rate Climbs to 7.45%; What It Signals for Crypto
The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.45% as Treasury yields surged, putting pressure on Bitcoin and crypto markets.
25/09/2026 05:128 min read
On Thursday, the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed 19 basis points, reaching 7.45%, according to Mortgage News Daily's daily broker survey.
This rise aligns with a wider decline in US government bonds. For cryptocurrency markets, the Treasury yield driving that selloff provides a more direct indicator.
How Treasury Yields Are Lifting Mortgage Rates
In late February, the 30-year rate fell to as low as 5.99%, CNBC reported. The upward trend started with the onset of the Iran conflict and gained pace following the Fed's September rate hike.
Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily, attributed the rise since September 10 to three factors: remarks from the Federal Reserve, increasing oil prices, and solid economic indicators.
Nonetheless, Graham stated he could identify no definite trigger for Thursday's bond selloff.
“No obvious catalyst. Explanations require concocting narratives and then defending them. There’s no objective, irrefutable way to connect the dots today. Sellers decided to sell… a lot,” he said.
The selloff is significant as mortgage rates typically follow long-term Treasury yields. On Thursday, the 10-year yield ended at 5.18%, compared to 4.96% on Tuesday, according to the Treasury.
The Kobeissi Letter pointed to inflation as the cause of the bond slide, referencing Brent crude exceeding $105 per barrel and all-time high diesel costs. It further observed that consumer inflation expectations stand at approximately 4.6% for the coming year.
Higher Yields Take a Toll on Crypto
The main connection for crypto is via these yields. Higher returns on government debt increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin (BTC).
This pressure became evident on Wednesday. Bitcoin dropped under $84,000 following robust US business activity figures that drove the 10-year yield above 5%.
As of Friday, BTC was trading at $84,590, recording a slight increase in the last day, per BeInCrypto Markets data. Alternative coins rebounded more sharply. Solana (SOL) rose 2.2%, while XRP (XRP) climbed 3.4% during the same timeframe.
This raises a lingering question: Can cryptocurrency investors continue to withstand the strain from a Treasury market offering yields above 5%?
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Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
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