Nasdaq-100 futures near 28,185; patience urged before shorting

Nasdaq-100 futures are trading around 28,185, putting the first profit target only 20 points lower. Should prices bounce into the 28,232–28,284 range, short sellers would face an adjusted risk-reward scenario.

Nasdaq-100 futures during the overnight session on November 12, 2026.

With the futures at about 28,185 in the latest overnight check, I would hold off on shorting until prices move higher. The nearest target is almost within reach, whereas the stop which would cancel the plan sits 152 points above the current level. Three specific price points are being monitored for a bounce that could improve entry conditions for sellers.

In that same snapshot, Nvidia fell 7.7% while AMD rose 1.75%. Bitcoin also traded weaker at around $73,600. The softer Bitcoin reinforced a cautious market mood, and AMD's gain indicated that certain chip stocks are weathering the Nvidia selloff. The initial price move was covered in an earlier report on Nvidia's after-hours decline.

Three price points for shorting Nasdaq futures

These represent sell-limit levels. They rely on a bounce and could be triggered one by one or together. If the futures slip directly to the first target without any order getting filled, I would skip the trade.

• 28,232 | First entry. A 47-point rise from the current level would trigger the first order.
• 28,254 | Second entry. Positioned just above the developing session's average traded price weighted by volume.
• 28,284 | Third entry. Near the first band above VWAP but under the evolving value area high around 28,300.
• 28,337 | Stop. Sits above the developing value area high and the second upper VWAP band in the snapshot. If buyers regain and hold 28,300, the justification for selling the bounce erodes. This level serves as the liquidation point if the short is active.

The session's volume-weighted average price and value-area thresholds change during trading. If a rebound happens later and those benchmarks have significantly changed, I would revisit the plan before applying the same orders.

Profit-taking levels for the short trade

• 28,165 | First target. Slightly above the previous session's value area low. If a short is live and the price hits this point, I would consider booking partial gains, wiping any remaining sell orders, and shifting the stop on the remainder to the average price of filled entries.
• 27,957 | Second target. Above a previous session's point of control, where volume was heaviest.
• 27,837 | Third target. Just ahead of the November 10 point of control and volume-weighted average price. This is the final target in the primary plan.

How waiting alters the trade's dynamics

From 28,185, a short has 20 points of room to hit the first target versus 152 points before the stop, a ratio of about 0.13R. If only the first entry at 28,232 is filled, that ratio improves to 0.64R. Should all three entries fill evenly, the average entry price becomes about 28,256.67, giving 80.33 points of initial risk. The three targets then stand at roughly 1.14R, 3.73R, and 5.22R, each before fees and slippage. These figures compare the distance to each target with the initial risk. Outcomes depend on how much of the position closes at each target.

I would keep positions modest. CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures (MNQ) are valued at $2 per point. One micro contract at each entry would expose $482 if all three are filled and the stop triggers at 28,337, excluding fees and slippage. A stop moved to the average entry can still experience slippage. Anyone trading a Nasdaq CFD should verify its quote and per-point value before applying this futures setup.

I accept the risk of missing a trade while waiting for a more favourable entry point. Jumping into a short after a steep decline can leave you underwater on the initial bounce. A patient approach can enhance the risk-reward ratio, and there remains the chance of getting filled and stopped out. There will be days when the market shifts without you, which is part of the strategy.

Educational only. Trade at your own risk.