Nike reports earnings as turnaround hopes rest on CEO's strategy

Nike is set to release its earnings after the market closes, with the stock trading close to its lowest point since February 2014. While expectations are modest, the key question is whether CEO Elliott Hill can provide investors with a clearer roadmap back to growth.

The results are expected around 4:15 p.m. ET, followed by a conference call at 5 p.m. ET.

What is expected?

For Nike's fiscal first quarter of 2027, analysts forecast:

• Earnings per share of $0.44, down from $0.49 in the same period last year.

• Revenue of roughly $11.33–$11.35 billion, compared with $11.72 billion a year earlier.

• An earnings decline of about 10% and a revenue decline of about 3%.

A better-than-expected result would help, but investors will also be looking for clarity on when sales will stabilize, whether conditions in China are improving, and whether Nike can drive stronger demand without leaning on discounts.

Elliott Hill: From intern to CEO

Elliott Hill has been Nike's CEO since 2024. His journey began as an intern in 1988. Over 32 years, he rose through the ranks, eventually overseeing commercial and marketing operations for Nike and Jordan across four geographic regions. He retired in 2020 but returned as CEO in October 2024, succeeding John Donahoe.

His return put an experienced Nike insider back in charge. His priorities have included placing athletes and performance products at the center of the business and mending ties with retail partners after the previous leadership's stronger focus on direct sales.

Nearly two years into his tenure, the pressure is mounting to turn those priorities into measurable outcomes.

In the previous quarter, wholesale revenue increased 4%, while Nike Direct revenue dropped 7%. The question is whether products shipped to retailers are selling through to consumers fast enough to maintain healthy inventories and full-price sales.

Caitlin Clark gives Nike a new product catalyst

The earnings report coincides with today's global launch of the Nike Caitlin 1, the first signature basketball shoe for WNBA player Caitlin Clark. The shoe is priced at $140, and initial colorways include Caitlin Blue and Warning Code Yellow. Nike is also releasing a matching apparel line.

The launch gives Hill a visible example of his athlete-focused product strategy. The goal is to convert Clark's popularity into sustained demand across both footwear and apparel.

Timing matters, though. The quarter being reported ended in August, so the September launch in China and the October global launch fall into the next quarter. Tonight's focus will be any early indications of demand and what the collection could contribute going forward.

Clark joins a group of athletes around whom Nike is building new product franchises. That emphasis has been on women's basketball:

• Sabrina Ionescu: Her Sabrina 4 footwear and apparel collection launched in July. Ionescu is a WNBA star.

• A'ja Wilson: Another of the WNBA's biggest stars. Her second signature shoe, the A'Two, launched in May.

• JuJu Watkins: A star women's basketball player at the University of Southern California. Nike introduced the LeBron NXXT Gen by JuJu.

• Devin Booker: An NBA All-Star. His Book 2 footwear and apparel collection launched in January.

Investors will want evidence that these launches are generating repeat purchases and profitable growth.

Among the NBA stars represented by Nike are:

• LeBron James
• Kevin Durant
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Devin Booker
• Ja Morant

Nike's athlete roster extends beyond basketball. Some prominent names across other sports include:

• Soccer: Cristiano Ronaldo, Erling Haaland and Vinícius Júnior. Nike featured all three in its 2026 soccer campaign.

• Tennis: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner—two major names supporting Nike's tennis footwear and apparel business.

• Golf: Scottie Scheffler and Nelly Korda, both prominently featured in Nike Golf. Their Nike relationships focus on apparel and footwear.

• NFL: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase and Kyler Murray. Nike also continues recruiting college and high-school athletes through NIL partnerships.

• Track and running: Sha'Carri Richardson, Faith Kipyegon, Jakob Ingebrigtsen and Eliud Kipchoge. These athletes support Nike's performance running identity.

Competition is taking major names

Nike's athlete strategy also faces growing competition. The most notable recent departure is Kylian Mbappé, who ended his long Nike relationship in September to join On. His deal includes cash and equity, and On plans to introduce soccer boots in 2027. That gives an expanding competitor a major athlete as it enters another important Nike market.

Nike, Jordan and Converse remain central to the recovery

Nike's portfolio consists of Nike, Jordan and Converse. Jordan is a distinct brand, but its revenue is included within Nike Brand sales.

For fiscal 2026:

• Nike Brand revenue was $45.2 billion, including Jordan.

• Jordan revenue was $7.03 billion, down 3%.

• Converse revenue was approximately $1.2 billion, down 31%.

New products can generate excitement, but the recovery also depends on restoring demand for established franchises such as Air Force 1, Dunk, Air Jordan and Converse's Chuck Taylor, while building momentum in performance footwear.

Technically, sellers remain in control

At the current price of $36.24, Nike is down 43.25% this year and trading near levels last seen in February 2014. The stock is about 79.8% below its November 2021 all-time high of $179.10.

The moving averages show the damage across several time frames:

• 100-week moving average at $60.78: The price remains well below this longer-term trend barometer.

• 200-day moving average at $48.89: A substantial recovery would be needed to challenge this resistance.

• 100-day moving average at $41.33: The price has remained below this moving average since February 25, 2026.

• 200-hour moving average at $37.40: This is key resistance for an initial recovery. Nike has remained below it since early August, when the average stood near $42.70.

• 100-hour moving average at $36.11: With the price just above it, this is the closest technical reference heading into earnings.

For buyers, staying above the 100-hour moving average at $36.11 provides a modest foothold. Getting above—and staying above—the 200-hour moving average at $37.40 would be a more meaningful step toward taking short-term control. That level is approximately 3.2% above the current price.

A sustained break above would put the 100-day moving average at $41.33 into focus, approximately 14% above the current price. Conversely, a move back below $36.11 would weaken the buyers' position. When a stock is trading at the lowest level since 2014, the burden of proof is on the buyers to show they can string together some victories.

The good news for potential investors right now is that they are buying low—really low. For potential investors at current levels, a 10% or even 20% gain is "only" $3.60 or $7.20 away. That type of move is significant, but it would still not be strong enough to take the price above the 200-day MA at $48.89. Maybe that is a good thing for the buyers.

The warning is that the price is down so low for a reason.

A better trade might be to see what the numbers say. If the reaction is positive and the price moves above the 100-hour MA at $36.10 and the 200-hour MA at $37.37, look to buy with a stop on a move back below the 100-hour MA. The stock would target the 100-day MA at $41.33. If it gets above that, the 200-day MA becomes a major target at $48.89. Other targets are at $45 and $47.25.

What will determine the reaction?

The focus will be on whether Hill provides a convincing timetable for sales stabilization, improvement in China and stronger underlying margins. Last quarter's reported earnings of $0.72 included a $0.52 tariff-recovery benefit, making the underlying profitability picture especially important.

The earnings release may give buyers their shot. The outlook will help determine whether they take it—and the moving averages will help traders judge whether they can hold it.