2027 global economy: risks of slowdown, recession, but not Great Depression
Global economy faces 2027 risks: AI correction, oil above $117, China weakness, but 2008-style collapse not yet signaled.
23/10/2026 22:4137 min read
NY Fed poll shows unemployment worry at highest since pandemic start
NY Fed survey finds stable inflation expectations but highest fear of rising unemployment since April 2020.
08/09/2026 15:113 min read
The New York Federal Reserve released its latest monthly survey of consumer expectations.
- One-year inflation forecasts held steady at 3.6%.
- Three-year inflation expectations fell to 3.2% from the previous 3.3%.
- Five-year inflation expectations remained at 3%.
- The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise reached its highest level since April 2020.
- Consumer views on the labor market were labeled "mixed" overall.
- Respondents expect higher gasoline prices in the future.
- Perceptions of current and future personal financial conditions worsened.
The report offered little positive news, but the Federal Reserve's primary focus is on inflation expectations, which do not justify a rate hike this month. Financial markets currently imply a 57% likelihood of a rate increase.
Unemployment expectations have deteriorated further.
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