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NY Fed survey for October sees inflation expectations flat at 1-, 3- and 5-year horizons

NY Fed October survey: inflation expectations held at 3%, 3.3% and 3.9%; unemployment expectations highest since April 2020.

09/11/2026 17:122 min read
  • Inflation one year out stayed put at 3%.
  • The three-year outlook was also unchanged, at 3.3%.
  • For five years out, expectations remained at 3.9%.
  • Expectations that unemployment will rise reached their highest point since April 2020.
  • The expected change in gas prices over the coming year is moderating.
  • The outlook for credit access was unchanged.
  • Households felt more optimistic about their own finances.

These results cut against much of the mainstream discussion, most notably on unemployment. That could simply point to worry over artificial intelligence.

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