Oil prices hold gains as supply fears persist and diplomatic efforts stall

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The oil market has seen no major fundamental shift since the prior session, though the recent bullish run has paused near significant technical thresholds. Still, crude prices remain elevated as supply concerns deepened after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline in response to drone attacks.

That pipeline had served as a bypass for the Strait of Hormuz, transporting about 4-5 million barrels daily to the Red Sea in recent months. Its closure eliminates one of the few alternatives for Saudi crude exports while Hormuz traffic stays heavily restricted.

The planned discussions between Iran and Gulf nations on a possible short-term shipping arrangement through the Strait of Hormuz were postponed, and the delay has weighed further on market sentiment. With those talks pushed back, expectations of a quick resolution to the disruption have diminished.

For now, oil prices are likely to stay supported and could even push toward fresh peaks unless there is substantial improvement in US-Iran ties or a clear path emerges for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, crude oil is trading in a consolidation pattern just beneath the key resistance zone near 105.00. That area is where sellers may step in with a defined risk above the level, aiming for a decline to the lower range of the channel around 85.00. Buyers, meanwhile, will be watching for a breakout above that region to target the 111.00 handle next.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4-hour chart, an upward trendline is shaping the bullish momentum into resistance. If a pullback occurs, buyers are expected to test the trendline with a defined risk below it to continue pushing toward higher levels. Sellers will watch for a break below that line to add bearish positions targeting the lower range of the channel.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1-hour chart, a second upward trendline is defining the bullish momentum on that timeframe. A pullback into that line yesterday closed the weekend gap, with buyers leaning on the trendline with a defined risk below it to aim for new highs. Sellers will look for a break below the line to shift focus toward the 4-hour trendline next. The red lines mark the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for tomorrow, followed by US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday. Market participants will also continue monitoring Middle East developments closely.