Putin personally ordered NATO sabotage drive, US intelligence finds

The report heightens the perceived risk of a Russia-NATO escalation, which could support European defence stocks and pressure sentiment in the region if governments answer with tougher measures. The energy side is the one to watch: Washington's diesel-supply deal with Moscow and the freeze on fresh US sanctions were meant in part to keep Russia out of the Iran conflict, and a breakdown of that setup could tighten fuel markets already under strain from the Middle East war. Drone attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea add to the shipping risk premium close to NATO waters. For the moment, the report supplies detail and attribution more than a new event, so unless governments act on it, market impact may be contained.

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Leipzig had already been blamed on Russian military intelligence; the Journal's account raises the responsibility to Putin himself and highlights how near Germany was to triggering NATO's mutual-defence clause.

Summary:

• European officials cited by the Wall Street Journal (gated) say US intelligence agencies determined that Putin gave a direct order for an intensified sabotage and covert-action campaign against NATO nations.
• Those officials described the failed August drone strike on a cargo aircraft at Germany's Leipzig-Halle Airport as one of the campaign's opening moves.
• Chancellor Friedrich Merz's aides said Germany would have weighed invoking NATO's Article 5 had the attack caused heavy casualties.
• Western intelligence traced the operation to a Russian military intelligence unit, with logistics routed through Serbia; seven suspects have been arrested there since.
• A Kremlin back-channel contact cautioned Berlin after the attack that further attacks would follow.
• Moscow denies any hand in sabotage on European soil.

European officials who were briefed on the conclusions and cited by the Wall Street Journal said US intelligence agencies had determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally ordered the intensified sabotage and covert-action campaign against NATO countries. The failed drone strike at a German airport in August was among the campaign's early operations.

The Leipzig-Halle Airport attack, at one of Europe's largest air-cargo hubs, was aimed at an Antonov freighter used to transport military aid to Ukraine. Germany formally attributed the attempt to Russia in September. The Journal's reporting goes further, placing the order at the top of the Kremlin and casting Leipzig as a deliberate escalation.

Aides to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the newspaper that Berlin would have contemplated invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty had the attack produced many casualties. That clause obliges allies to come to a member's aid and has been activated just once, after the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Investigators cited by the Journal said at least three drones packed with Semtex were concealed near the airport perimeter and steered remotely over German mobile networks. One drone hit the freighter but did not detonate. German cyber officials traced the communications to servers previously used by Russian military intelligence.

Western officials blame the Special Tasks Service, a GRU branch established in 2023, for the campaign and tie the Leipzig plot to one of its department heads, who already faced EU and UK sanctions. A former Russian officer, investigators believe, coordinated ground logistics with Belarusian operatives, using Serbia as a hub for moving drones and explosives. Serbian prosecutors have arrested seven suspects since.

The report says European officials have seen a sharp uptick in so-called grey-zone attacks since August, among them arson against drone makers in Estonia and Poland, sabotage of Starlink stations in Poland, Lithuania and Bulgaria, and drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea. Berlin was reportedly told by a Kremlin back-channel contact after the Leipzig attempt that further attacks were on the way.

Moscow has rejected involvement, and in September Putin asked where the evidence was. The Kremlin did not reply to the Journal's request for comment.

The conclusions land as Washington maintains a delicate relationship with Moscow, including a diesel supply arrangement and a pause in new sanctions that President Donald Trump says is designed to keep Russia out of the Iran war. The next test will be how European governments respond and whether Washington adjusts its course.