RBNZ rate hike anticipated as Australian GDP data due

Data on Australia's gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2026 is scheduled for release.

The main event, however, is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy announcement. Markets anticipate a rate increase, though the decision is not unanimous.

Earlier reports:

• Westpac previews RBNZ hiking OCR to 2.75% tomorrow, data dependent from there
• Path of least resistance: ASB expects consensus RBNZ hike this week
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Shadow Board split, most back 25bp rate hike this week
• Preview: Inflation and growth strength point to further RBNZ tightening, BNZ says
• 90% of economists expect RBNZ hike on September 2, poll shows

As noted, the Australian Q2 GDP figures are out today. The consensus forecast is in the range of 0.2% to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. NAB is the most pessimistic at 0.2%, while CBA and ANZ forecast 0.4%. J.P. Morgan is in the middle at 0.3%. The more significant narrative lies below the top-line figure.

Net exports, which were the main drag on Q1 growth at -0.8 percentage points, contributed a modest +0.1 percentage points in Q2. This represents a sharp reversal after trade was the biggest drag since the weather-disrupted mining quarter earlier in the year. NAB had flagged this possibility, noting that miners were destocking inventory and shipping product offshore rather than any real improvement in import intensity.

The caveat is that private non-farm inventories are expected to subtract around 0.3 percentage points this quarter. This suggests the trade improvement may be merely inventory drawdown reclassified as export strength, a rotation of drags rather than a broad acceleration.

Elsewhere, retail sales volumes increased a modest 0.4% following a decline in Q1. Capital expenditure remains a standout, boosted by spending on data-centre-related machinery, though much of that equipment is imported. That is one reason net exports have been weak until recently.

The bottom line is that growth is likely to be modest and unspectacular, with the composition — trade contributing positively while inventories weigh — doing more work than the headline number.