S&P 500's Post-Midterm Winning Run Faces Oil, Yield and AI Tests

Since 1982, the S&P 500 has risen in the year following each US midterm election. As Americans head to the polls today, that history is a tailwind for equities, though a number of macroeconomic risks might put the record under pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) has also ended a year after recent midterms in positive territory. Its route over the months that followed, though, has been much bumpier than the path stocks took.

Four Decades of Gains After the Midterm Vote

CNBC reports that one year after the 11 midterm elections held since 1982, the S&P 500 gained an average of 13.7%. In each of those cases, the index finished higher.

Arun Sundaram, a senior investment strategist at CFRA, cites an even longer streak. His view is that since World War II, markets have not fallen in the 12 months starting in October of a midterm year. Over those periods, gains averaged roughly 16%.

“I think that the midterms are a bit of a clearing event. US markets tend to do better once we get past the midterms,” Sundaram said to CNBC.

When voters divided control of Washington, returns were also bigger. Elections that produced divided government delivered an average one-year gain of 15%, compared with 11.5% when a single party held control.

CFRA anticipates that Democrats will win the House and probably the Senate. CNBC identified a precedent for a Democratic Congress serving under a Republican president. Following the 1986, 1990 and 2006 midterms, the S&P 500 posted an average one-year gain of 10.9%.

Sundaram, however, argues that markets have historically performed better when a Republican president and Congress are in place than under a Democratic one. He describes a Democratic sweep of Congress as the worst case. Even so, he says markets tend to be higher 12 months later.

A November Tailwind, With Oil and Yields in the Way

Near-term seasonality also works in stocks' favor. According to data shared by The Kobeissi Letter, November has produced an average gain of 2.1% since 1980 and has been positive 74% of the time.

During midterm years since 1950, November's average gain has been 2.7%, with a 78.9% win rate.

Markets are heading into their strongest seasonal period of the year:

Since 1980, the S&P 500 has rallied +2.1% on average in November, making it the strongest month of the year.

Over this period, positive returns occurred 74% of the time, the best hit rate of any month.…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), November 2, 2026

Sundaram nevertheless identifies geopolitics as the major unpredictable force this year, particularly the war with Iran. CFRA lifted its oil forecast and now projects an average price of about $85 a barrel next year, up from $70.

On Monday, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.9%, down from a high of 5.3% around a month earlier. CNBC, meanwhile, identifies artificial intelligence (AI) as the key swing factor now, along with whether tech declines will continue.

Bitcoin Also Climbed After Midterms, the Hard Way

Crypto has shown the same midterm pattern, although with much wider price swings. DWF Labs data indicates BTC gained 25%, 45% and 92% in the year after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms.

Even so, BTC's path was considerably bumpier than the S&P 500's. Three months after the 2014 vote, it was trading 31% below its election-day close; after 2018, it was 46% below.

Whether either streak continues may rest on oil, yields and AI as much as on the election result.