Sellers push bitcoin under the range — can they keep it there?

The buyers in the bitcoin market got their chance last week.

Tuesday saw the price climb over the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, a move that opened the way for further upside. The rally then cleared resistance around $84,178 and reached a weekly peak of $84,774 on Wednesday.

That was the moment for buyers to tighten their grip. Having pushed through the hourly averages and a well-known ceiling, the task was to defend those levels and keep momentum going.

They failed to follow through.

Risk-off conditions then weighed on bitcoin and turned the price downward. Thursday's slide dropped it under both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, dipping to around $82,225 and $82,400. The constructive setup from earlier in the week swung back to the bears.

That aborted bounce reinforced the change in momentum.

Friday brought a return to the 200-hour moving average, where selling pressure re-emerged and knocked the price down as the weekend began.

The retest carries real technical weight.

Dropping through a moving average marks the first bearish signal. A later bounce into that average and a fresh round of selling would confirm that the level is now being used as resistance and a risk marker.

The sellers' setup is now unambiguous: hold the price under the moving average and the negative outlook stands. A move back above it, sustained, would begin to invalidate that outlook.

Friday's rejection left the bears in charge. Selling stretched into Saturday, taking the price to $79,146.

Today's slide bottomed out at $79,260, a hair above that weekend trough. That suggests buyers are trying to protect the same zone, though the bounce has been muted. A recovery to $80,400 has faded, with the price returning to around $79,779.

Halting a slide is not the same as seizing control. So far buyers have only done the former; the latter remains unfinished.

What is preserving the sellers' upper hand?

The key near-term markers are the descending hourly moving averages:

• 100-hour moving average: $80,797
• 200-hour moving average: $81,620

With the price stuck beneath those points, the near-term advantage stays with sellers.

For buyers, the 100-hour moving average comes first. Clearing it and holding above would indicate the rebound has legs. Pushing above the 200-hour moving average would add to signs that momentum is turning.

What is so important about “stay above”?

Last week showed why a breakout by itself is insufficient. Buyers got through the resistance but failed to hold it. Continuation is what counts. A short-lived move above a level that snaps back can leave latecomers stranded and add force to the reversal.

The sellers have yet to deliver the next push down.

Even with the hourly averages pointing lower, the bears still have work to do.

The decisive downside level to watch is Saturday's low at $79,146. Today's dip stopped at $79,260 just above it, so the zone has become the immediate contest.

If the price falls under $79,146 and cannot climb back over that level, the bear case would firm up and the path would clear toward the next important technical objectives:

• $76,052 — the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the June 30 low.
• $75,597 — the rising 100-day moving average.

These levels put the broader daily outlook in view.

The hourly averages set the short-term tone. The retracement level and the 100-day moving average, meanwhile, offer a sense of how deep a bigger pullback might go. They are possible targets, not assured stopping points, if selling intensifies.

The key uncertainty is whether this is a true range break or another false move.

For the most part since September 18, bitcoin has moved between roughly $80,000 and $87,374.

Over the weekend and once more today, sellers have pushed the price under the bottom edge of that range. Their challenge now is to keep it there.

A break that holds would normally draw further selling. A return above $80,000, on the other hand, would be the first hint that the downside move is stalling. Buyers would still have to take back the hourly moving averages to build a convincing argument.

The technical path is therefore fairly clear.

As long as the price is under the hourly averages, sellers keep the near-term edge. A drop through $79,146 would let them push that edge toward the daily levels further down.

By contrast, a durable climb above $80,797 and then $81,620 would bring buyers back into the picture and suggest the downside break had failed.

Last week buyers took their swing and could not hold the upside move. The opportunity now belongs to sellers.

If they cannot maintain the pressure, control could slip away.