USD/JPY keeps sliding as yen touches seven-month peak; CPI, BoJ eyed
The yen strengthened to a seven-month high, extending USD/JPY's slide as traders await US CPI and BoJ guidance.
55 min ago12 min read
September Fed Rate Hike Odds Slip to 50/50 as Bitcoin Tests $82,000
Odds of a September Fed rate hike fell to 50/50 on Friday, reversing a 70% probability from a day earlier, as Bitcoin rallied near $82,000.
04/09/2026 01:588 min read
The likelihood of a September rate increase by the Federal Reserve dropped to a coin-flip on Friday, reversing sharply from a 70% probability seen just a day earlier and from 37% a week before that.
The shift in odds accompanies a Bitcoin rally that has pushed the cryptocurrency close to $82,000.
Rate Bets Whipsaw Ahead of the September Meeting
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the September 16 meeting is now almost evenly split between holding the benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% and raising it by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%.
Odds of a rate hike in September dropped today, returning to a 50/50 split. The second expected rate hike is now not fully priced in until March rather than December.
— Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi) September 3, 2026
This represents a notable shift away from the strong hawkishness expressed by the markets earlier this week. pic.twitter.com/VVuLawauDt
Just on Thursday, the FedWatch tool had assigned a 70% chance to the hike.
The FedWatch data also pushed back the expected timeline for a second rate increase. A move to 4.00-4.25% is not seen as the most probable outcome until the March 2027 meeting, compared to December 2026 as futures markets had implied earlier in the week.
Iran and Oil Are Driving the Volatility
The probabilities have been swinging in tandem with oil prices and bond yields linked to the Iran situation, leaving traders uncertain about inflation.
At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh encountered a divided market on the question of a rate increase, and the central bank itself remains split on whether to keep tightening.
Bitcoin has tracked the changing rate outlook. The cryptocurrency broke above $80,000 this week amid speculation about an end to the Iran conflict, and was trading close to $81,000 on Friday, gaining about 5% in the past 24 hours.
A lower probability of a rate hike typically eases pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, both of which have supported Bitcoin's price movement this week.
Whether this dynamic persists until the September 16 decision may hinge on how the Iran situation and the next inflation report develop in the coming days.
Share to
Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
Related articles
France's trade gap widens further in July on rising imports
France's trade deficit widened to €6.67 billion in July as imports rose faster than exports.
1 h ago6 min read
German trade surplus expands in July as imports plunge
Germany's trade surplus rose to €21.3 billion in July, beating forecasts, as imports fell 5.7% month-on-month.
2 h ago8 min read
UBS recommends three investment areas as Fed rate hike odds climb to 60%
UBS recommends equities, bonds, and gold as Fed rate hike odds rise to 60%.
3 h ago10 min read