Silver Holds Gains as Iran Signals Hormuz Reopening

Fundamental Overview

Silver has held up since the FOMC meeting, as markets walked back the initial hawkish reaction. The Fed outlined a less aggressive rate path than traders had priced in, and Chair Warsh largely echoed his Jackson Hole remarks.

Oil prices have dropped recently on de-escalation expectations, which has alleviated inflation and rate-hike worries, giving metals a further lift. Earlier, Kyodo reported that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases its naval blockade.

The timing is significant. Trump is holding talks with Gulf leaders in New York about the conflict, while Qatar and other regional states are urging a return to dialogue with Iran. Qatar has indicated it is pursuing even a short-term deal to reopen Hormuz shipping and lay the groundwork for fresh negotiations.

A de-escalation would sustain the downward pressure on oil, further reducing inflation and rate-hike fears. That should keep silver buoyant and pushing to fresh highs.

Economic releases will matter given how stretched current pricing is. With positioning and expectations extended, a small data surprise could prompt a sharp reversal. If US figures come in below forecasts, expectations for steep rate increases would probably ease, offering silver another lift.

Silver Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, silver bounced off the key 63.00 support and then retreated from the 67.00 area. Should the price fall back to 63.00, buyers are expected to enter with a clear risk below that level, aiming for a climb to 71.50. Conversely, sellers would look for a breakdown below 63.00 to add to short positions targeting 55.00.

Silver Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

The 4-hour chart shows a minor support area near 65.00. Buyers are likely to step in there with a defined risk below to push towards new highs. Sellers, meanwhile, will aim for a break below 65.00 to extend the pullback to 63.00 support.

Silver Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

The 1-hour chart features a minor downtrend line that has defined the recent pullback. A rally up to that line would likely attract sellers who lean on it with a risk above, continuing the move to new lows. Buyers would prefer a break above the trendline to add to bullish positions targeting 71.50. The red lines mark today's average daily range.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today's schedule includes Trump's meeting with Gulf leaders and potentially with Iran's president at the UN General Assembly. Tomorrow brings the Flash US PMIs. Thursday features the Trump-Xi meeting.