Silver jumps 4.5% for biggest daily advance since August 19 as yields fall

Silver traded 4.5% higher today, posting its biggest one-day gain since August 19. Lower U.S. Treasury yields supported the move, while the technical outlook turned more bullish after sellers repeatedly failed to hold the price below a key support level.

The 30-year Treasury yield slipped nearly 6 basis points to 4.944%, dipping back under the 5.00% threshold. The 10-year yield fell 4.6 basis points to 4.681%. Declining yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver. A weaker dollar and a retreat in oil prices also bolstered the precious-metals complex.

Sellers had their chance below the 50% retracement

Since reaching $71.16 in late August, silver has corrected in an uneven fashion. During that correction, the price tested and moved below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $62.92 three times this month, including after the previous day's FOMC decision.

On each occasion, however, the price quickly reversed back above that level.

This failure is meaningful. Sellers had their opportunity below the 50% retrracement but could not keep the price there. When a market repeatedly breaks through a key level and fails to sustain that break, sellers may grow frustrated. As they cover short positions and buyers step back in, a failed breakdown can become the catalyst for a move in the opposite direction.

The current rally—assisted by the decline in yields—began with a climb back above the 100-hour moving average at $63.86. Buyers then pushed through the 61.8% retrracement at $63.95 before extending through the next resistance cluster:

• The 38.2% retrracement at $64.85
• The 200-hour moving average at $64.90

Moving above that area gave buyers more control and helped accelerate the upside momentum.

The 100-day moving average is the next target

Silver touched $66.17 during the session, leaving the 100-day moving average near $66.75 as the next key target.

That moving average matters because it defines the broader technical bias. Reaching the level is just one step; buyers need to get above it and stay above it to open the door for further upside momentum.

For now, holding above the $64.85 to $64.90 area keeps the short-term bias tilted more firmly toward buyers.

What buyers and sellers need to do next

The path for buyers is straightforward: stay above the 38.2% retrracement at $64.85 and the 200-hour moving average at $64.90, then target the 100-day moving average at $66.75. A sustained move above the 100-day moving average would strengthen the bullish bias and give buyers even more control.

For sellers, the first task is to push the price back below the $64.85 to $64.90 area. That would weaken today's breakout and put the 61.8% retrracement at $63.95 and the 100-hour moving average at $63.86 back in play.

A move below those levels would shift focus back to the 50% retrracement at $62.92. However, given the repeated failed breaks at that level, sellers would need to get below it and stay below it before they could claim more control.

Trading education: A failed break can become the catalyst

In his book Attacking Currency Trends, the author emphasizes that moving through a technical level is only the first step. The market must also stay beyond that level to confirm that buyers or sellers are taking control.

Silver is a good example. Sellers broke below the 50% retrracement at $62.92, but the price could not stay below it. The reversal back above that level was the first sign that the downside break had failed. The subsequent moves above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages confirmed that buyers were taking more control.

The lesson is simple: do not focus only on the break. Pay attention to what happens after the break. A failure to stay beyond a key level can be just as important—and sometimes more important—than the initial break itself.

The technical roadmap

Silver's short-term bias is more bullish while the price holds above the $64.85 to $64.90 area. The 100-day moving average at $66.75 is the next major upside test.

A move back below $64.85 would weaken the breakout. A fall below the $63.95 to $63.86 area would give sellers more control and turn focus back to $62.92.

Price action around those levels will provide the next clue