Stablecoin supply plateaus but usage rises, report finds

Standard Chartered has pushed back its forecast for the stablecoin market to $2 trillion by 2030, two years behind its earlier estimate. The revision follows a plateau in total stablecoin supply at around $309 billion this year, Cointelegraph reported after seeing the document.

At first glance, a "$2 trillion" projection appears positive. In reality, it reflects a postponement. The report's key insight is Standard Chartered's claim that stablecoin usage is expanding even as the market's size plateaus. Grasping this apparent contradiction is among the most valuable concepts in crypto today.

Market capitalization and transaction volume measure distinct aspects.

Stablecoins are crypto tokens engineered to maintain a stable price, typically pegged to one US dollar, with reserves held by the issuer. Since each token is intended to equal $1, the market cap effectively reflects the circulating supply.

That metric shows the quantity of stablecoin dollars in existence. It does not indicate how actively those dollars are being used.

Consider a taxi fleet: the number of vehicles remains constant but trips increase because each car carries more passengers. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, applies the same analogy to stablecoins — supply growth has decelerated, yet existing tokens are transacted more frequently as their applications broaden. Economists refer to this as velocity.

For readers, the takeaway is that a stagnant market cap alone does not signal weakening demand. It could simply mean that the same capital is cycling through the system more quickly.

Four distinct markets, not a single one.

Kendrick categorizes stablecoins into four separate segments, each dominated by a different issuer:

• Savings in emerging markets: Tether's USDT is the leader, used by individuals storing dollars outside local banking.
• Payments in developed markets: Circle's USDC is the frontrunner.
• Crypto trading: USDC and Ethena's USDe maintain solid positions.
• AI agent payments: a smaller segment, also headed by USDC.

This distinction is important because the broader "stablecoin market" is frequently viewed as a two-horse race between USDT and USDC. Under the bank's framework, the two biggest tokens largely serve different functions for different user groups.

How reserve yield may determine winners.

Issuers generally back their tokens with cash and short-term government bonds, generating interest income. Kendrick contends that the way issuers and payment platforms distribute that yield could shape market share.

He forecasts the most intense rivalry in developed-market payments, where newcomers like USDG, M^0, and bank-consortium stablecoin networks are creating alternatives to current payment infrastructure. A platform that passes a larger share of the yield to its business users holds a distinct advantage.

The regulatory timeline.

The US regulatory framework remains under construction. Since the GENIUS Act was enacted in 2025, regulators have put forward proposals addressing issuance, reserves, and consumer safeguards.

Three notable proposals:

• Treasury licensing: The August proposal would limit stablecoin issuance to federally or state-authorized entities, with licensing anticipated to begin in January 2027.
• Deposit insurance: An FDIC proposal would deny stablecoin holders pass-through deposit insurance, so their holdings would not be treated as insured bank deposits.
• Accounting: The Financial Accounting Standards Board, which governs US accounting rules, proposed an August update that may alter how firms report certain stablecoins on their balance sheets. Payments firm Tempo stated this could simplify stablecoin use for corporate settlement.

The accounting proposal is often overlooked. Businesses frequently adopt payment instruments based on accounting ease rather than technology alone.

What could shift the interpretation.

The velocity thesis depends on sustained growth in usage data. If transaction volumes level off along with supply, the "same dollars, working harder" narrative would lose force, and the postponed forecast might appear optimistic.

Conversely, a new increase in supply would indicate fresh capital entering. More defined US licensing regulations from 2027 could facilitate this by providing large institutions the clarity required to issue or hold stablecoins in volume.

What to monitor next.

Track two metrics together instead of one: total stablecoin supply and transaction volume. Increasing volume alongside stagnant supply backs Standard Chartered's thesis. Declining volume with flat supply would be a cautionary indicator.

Also keep an eye on regulation. The ultimate form of the Treasury licensing rules before January 2027, and whether FASB adopts its accounting proposal, will indicate how fast regulated entities can enter the payments space.

The key lesson is that a stagnant market cap alone does not signal the end of the stablecoin narrative. Focus on the flow of money, not just the stock.