Strategy's Bitcoin Guide Warns of Potential 93% Crash

Strategy, the company previously known as MicroStrategy, has issued a Bitcoin investor guide that cautions buyers about a past 93.1% decline in the asset.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor shared the document over the weekend. The guide dedicates more attention to losses, custody failures and position sizing than to potential gains.

What the MicroStrategy Bitcoin Guide Warns About

The 93.1% drop, which happened at the low point in 2011, represents Bitcoin's deepest historical decline. The guide also highlights a worst one-year return of negative 83.6%. Its focus is not on price direction but on survival.

A correct call on Bitcoin over a decade does not prevent losses over a ten-month stretch.

“An investor can be correct that Bitcoin appreciates and still lose money through leverage, option decay, an unfavorable capital structure, corporate risks, counterparty failure, excessive fees or forced liquidation,” the company says.

Saylor Has Already Lived a Crash Like This

The warning carries weight because Saylor has seen such a crash devastate his own firm. On March 20, 2000, MicroStrategy restated three years of revenue. Its stock fell 62% in one session from a peak of $333.

The SEC subsequently charged him with fraud. He paid $8.28 million in disgorgement and a $350,000 penalty, without admitting wrongdoing.

Why the Warning Lands Awkwardly Now

Strategy is not an impartial observer. Filings indicate the company held 845,050 BTC as of September 7, at an average acquisition cost of $75,412.

Bitcoin's current price is near $77,106. This puts Strategy barely 2% above its cost basis, and 38.8% below its October 2025 high.

Recent purchases are already showing losses. BeInCrypto reported that Strategy resumed buying Bitcoin on August 31, paying an average of $80,318 for 4,603 BTC. That buying run lasted only one week.

Meanwhile, the MicroStrategy Bitcoin guide also serves as a product offering. Its table of investor options lists common and preferred stock of a BTC treasury company. Strategy sells both.

The guide does disclose the conflict. Strategy states outright that it profits when Bitcoin prices rise. Consequently, while Michael Saylor advises investors to prepare for a 93% decline, his own company is positioned for the opposite.

Bitcoin is an open, global reserve asset with absolute scarcity. The Investor Guide explores Bitcoin’s monetary properties, investment case, market structure, portfolio role, custody and risks. $BTChttps://t.co/MAt57RCG8y

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 12, 2026