Stronger Chinese activity gives yuan a lift, yet patchy spending limits gains, MUFG says

According to MUFG, the yuan is now operating in a somewhat more supportive environment, because stronger Chinese growth reduces the pressure on Beijing to roll out stimulus that could weaken the currency. The catch is that an expansion powered by factories and exports, rather than households, keeps China dependent on foreign demand and vulnerable to trade friction, which limits how much support the currency can draw from that strength. Monetary policy is the other swing factor: the PBOC's move this week to daily overnight funding operations has prompted questions about whether a lower policy anchor might follow, and such a step would drag on the yuan if it materialised. For the Australian and New Zealand dollars, stronger industrial output is a modest positive for commodity demand, even though a 20% slide in property investment continues to weigh on construction materials. Oil, for its part, receives some support on the demand side from steadier factory activity in the world's biggest crude importer.

Chinese factories have provided the yuan with a firmer floor, but MUFG warns that a recovery without a consumer side is one built on a single leg.

Key points:

• According to MUFG, the yuan enjoys a more constructive domestic setting after Chinese activity picked up in the third quarter.
• The lender warns that the durability of that backing rests on what kind of growth delivers it.
• Third-quarter GDP growth rose to 4.5% from 4.3%, a shade above forecasts, while industrial production accelerated to 5.5% in September.
• Retail sales inched up to 1.1%, boosted by when the Mid-Autumn Festival fell, although household spending still lacks convincing momentum.
• Property investment fell about 21% in the first three quarters, extending the decline that had been recorded through August.
• Technology manufacturing and digital services remain stronger than traditional domestic sectors.

According to MUFG, China's stronger third-quarter growth puts the yuan on firmer domestic footing, although the bank cautions that the lopsided composition of the rebound will determine whether that support can be maintained.

MUFG argued that improving activity, led by industrial output, provides a more favourable backdrop for the currency. But it said stronger production has yet to turn into a convincing recovery in household spending or property investment, making the make-up of growth central to the yuan's outlook.

Monday's release showed third-quarter GDP growth of 4.5% year on year, up from 4.3% in the second quarter and slightly above forecasts, leaving year-to-date growth at 4.6% and keeping Beijing's annual target within reach. Industrial production accelerated to 5.5% in September, while the monthly decline in fixed-asset investment narrowed after four straight months of double-digit falls.

Consumer demand strengthened, but the calendar helped. Retail sales rose to 1.1% from 0.4%, comfortably beating expectations, partly because the Mid-Autumn Festival fell in September. Property remains the weakest area, with investment down around 21% in the first three quarters, a steeper decline than through August.

MUFG also highlighted a widening divergence within the economy. Technology manufacturing and digital services kept outperforming, while traditional domestic sectors such as property lagged behind.

That divergence is significant for the currency. A recovery powered mainly by factories and exports makes China more reliant on external demand and more exposed to trade conflicts, while a broader improvement in household spending would give a more durable foundation. For now, firmer growth takes pressure off policymakers to deliver aggressive stimulus, and that generally supports the yuan.

Monetary policy still warrants close attention. The People's Bank of China announced this week that it will conduct daily overnight funding operations through 2 November. That came a day after Governor Pan Gongsheng signalled plans to study how the overnight rate could become the central bank's main policy rate. If a lower policy anchor eventually emerges, it could offset part of the support from stronger growth.