Three Signals Suggest Bitcoin Ready for Larger Rally, Says Analyst

Bitcoin may still have room to extend its upward move, according to chart analyst Frank Cappelleri, who cites a roughly 20% August gain along with two other indicators.

Although bitcoin has already climbed from its mid-year lows, the question of further upside remains. Cappelleri, who heads the chart research firm CappThesis, argues that the latest price action differs from prior failed recoveries.

Why Did Earlier Breakouts Fail to Spark a Bullish Move?

His first point relates to breakouts—when price moves above a level it previously could not surpass. Writing for CNBC Pro on Oct. 1, Cappelleri notes that bitcoin’s breakouts are once again functioning.

A pattern that traders interpret as a signal of higher prices finally played out this summer, paving the way for bitcoin’s August breakout.

Between late 2025 and early 2026, three similar patterns fizzled out. He describes that as normal during a downtrend, because healthy uptrends keep gaining after breakouts.

Is Bitcoin Repeating the Start of Its 2023 Rally?

His second reason involves historical precedent. This year’s weekly chart for bitcoin closely mirrors the period from 2022 into 2023, he says.

In 2023, weekly price averages that had previously capped rallies turned upward and began to offer support on dips. Cappelleri sees that shift as a sign of a market transitioning from a downturn to an upturn.

Cappelleri: The bullish trend we’ve seen in the S&P 500 should continue in Q4

Bitcoin’s advance then continued into late 2025, and he argues that today’s price activity resembles that pattern.

His third reason is the longer-term perspective. Bitcoin’s rebound started near a rising trend line that dates back to 2017. Each of the three prior dips toward that line was followed by a rally within months.

The roughly 20% August gain is also significant, he says, because such moves were uncommon during weaker periods. Exchange trading volume also recovered that month, based on CryptoQuant’s volume revival data.

Macro pressures remain. CME FedWatch, which tracks market-implied probability of rate changes, placed the odds of a Federal Reserve hike in October at 68.1% on Sept. 28. BeInCrypto analysis linked rate concerns to the recent crypto market decline.

Whether breakouts persist in the face of rising rate expectations will determine whether this is a genuine trend change or just another bounce that fades.