Nasdaq 100 near-term bias tilts bearish after rebound stalls

Nasdaq 100's recovery from its late-July low has run into a barrier, raising the question of whether a retest is coming.

NDX has risen sharply since late July, but the advance has arrived at a point where the index must demonstrate staying power near resistance. The index stalled around 30,760-30,770, near its June high, and closed September 24 at approximately 30,479. The longer-term trend is still positive, yet the short-term outlook marginally favours a drop to retest support before a new upward leg can begin.

This is a preference, not a prediction that the index will definitely drop. The analysis is based on data up to the September 24 close, so it describes the situation entering September 25, not a current market update. The following looks at a basic 4-hour NDX chart ahead of the September 25, 2026 open, which also marks the close of the current weekly candle and the imminent daily close.

Nasdaq buyers emerged on September 24, but the recovery is not yet complete.

September 24's trading gave a clear picture of the struggle. NDX fell to roughly 30,204 before rebounding to around 30,479. Buying momentum on an hourly basis was positive during most of the recovery, and volume moved to higher prices as the day went on.

The advance, however, encountered trouble near 30,500-30,530. The last hourly bar showed about -$30.2 million in delta, which measures the gap between aggressive buying and selling, while NDX stayed around 30,479.

This mix requires careful interpretation. Sellers were present, yet the price did not drop dramatically with them. That can suggest the selling was absorbed, but it does not reveal the counterparty or confirm that buyers have taken control. The key question for traders is whether NDX can remain above the recovery level or will fall back to support.

Delta is an indicator of aggressive orders entering the market. It is not a complete picture alone. Heavy selling with stable prices could indicate buyers absorbing the supply. But if price subsequently breaks support, the selling is having impact.

The longer-term trend for the Nasdaq 100 looks stronger than the short-term view.

This does not imply bears lack reasons to be short today. The rally began forcefully. On September 18, NDX saw exceptionally high volume and finished near the top of its daily range, then advanced further on September 21 and 22. The drop on September 23 broke that momentum. On September 24, the bounceback reduced some losses, but on thinner volume.

Currently, the pattern appears to be a halt and attempted recovery rather than proof of a failed uptrend. However, a low-volume bounce does not equal renewed buying enthusiasm. NDX must retake nearby resistance and display an ability to hold above it.

That explains why daily and intraday analysis can appear contradictory yet be consistent: the daily chart can be bullish while the short-term outlook still leans toward another test of lower levels.

Key levels that may resolve the uncertainty follow.

• 30,700-30,770: The key resistance test, encompassing the recent high and the June peak area. A sustained break above would strengthen the recovery case.
• 30,500-30,530: The initial barrier for buyers. Reclaiming and holding this zone would brighten the short-term outlook.
• 30,350-30,400: A nearby support pivot. Losing it after another rejection around 30,500 would refocus attention on the September 24 low.
• 30,200-30,230: The level buyers held on September 24. A sustained breach below would indicate that defense has failed.
• 29,750-29,900: A deeper support area if lower levels break. It lies near prior congestion and the pullback region on the four-hour chart. Bouncing and holding there would align with former resistance becoming support; trading below it persistently would undermine the bullish structure.

A resistance level is not invalidated by a temporary move above it. Traders typically wait for confirmation: price staying above the level or a successful test that does not reverse sharply. The principle holds for support. A quick drop below a zone differs from a persistent breakdown.

The short-term bias continues to favour caution, with bears perhaps having an edge over bulls today.

The modestly preferred near-term scenario is a decline to retest support if NDX stalls once more near 30,500-30,530, especially if it subsequently falls through 30,350-30,400. That would put 30,200-30,230 under threat. A sustained drop below that level would raise the chance of a larger fall toward 29,750-29,900.

The bullish case is still possible. Staying above 30,200, retaking 30,530 and then confirming acceptance above 30,770 would gradually build a case that buyers have regained control.

Until NDX triggers one of those scenarios, the range's middle may be less informative than its boundaries. The September 24 bounce indicated that buyers would defend 30,200, but the failure near 30,500 demonstrated that sellers remain active. The next signal is whether buying power can push through that resistance, or whether the market must dip first. If a retest occurs, it does not guarantee a bounce, but prior short sellers might take partial profits at that zone, leading to short covering and temporary buying pressure. Those who were short could also consider reducing positions there. The key is to observe how price responds to any retest.

All Nasdaq trading and investing is done at your own risk. The above content is opinion and intended for educational purposes only; it does not constitute financial advice.