McDonald's Stock and Yields Move in Lockstep, But Opposite

Shares of McDonald's (MCD) have dropped roughly 32% from early March. Over the same period, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by nearly the same 32%.

The X account Mr. Derivatives posted a chart of this relationship, using data up to September 28. Fundstrat's Tom Lee responded that he is uncertain why the two series move in opposing directions.

McDonald's Price and the 10-Year Yield Head in Opposite Ways

Mr. Derivatives overlaid the Cboe 10-Year Treasury Yield Index (TNX) on McDonald's stock from early March. The result appears as one line with its reflection.

The yield climbed from about 4% to 5.24% by September 28, a 19-year peak. McDonald's fell from a high above $340 to $233.60 over that stretch. Both moves amount to about 32%, but in opposite directions.

The recent period looks even more unusual. Yields went up on 19 of the last 23 trading days, gaining 14%. McDonald's declined on 19 of those sessions, losing 14%.

This is ABSOLUTELY wild. The reverse mirror image is so accurate it's almost scary. Very scary.

The inverse of the 10yr yield is…. $MCD.

What a sight. pic.twitter.com/i773C7jUmu

— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) September 28, 2026

Lee responded to the post.

“Interesting. Not sure why $MCD is negatively correlated to yields. But still interesting”

Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, on X

Three Possible Explanations for the Mirror Pattern

The first idea relates to interest rates. McDonald's carries roughly $40 billion in long-term debt, based on its first-quarter filing, so rising yields could increase its borrowing expenses. Its dividend yields about 3%, well below Treasury rates.

A second theory involves consumer pressure. Bloomberg reports that price-sensitive diners are resisting menu increases. McDonald's also forecasts a US sales decline this quarter.

The third suggestion points to the Federal Reserve, which raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, according to Schwab. Since then, yields at multi-year highs may have weighed on consumer stocks.

The Match May Be Mostly Random

Still, none of these ideas fully explains such a tight correlation. Both series have moved in one direction for about seven months, and any two trending data sets can appear as mirror images. Statisticians call this a spurious correlation.

Company-specific news also plays a role. McDonald's lost over 6% in three days after its September 23 Investor Day. That decline falls within the 23-day stretch.

So the honest conclusion is that no clear explanation exists. A reversal in yields would test the pattern. If McDonald's continues to fall while yields decline, the relationship may be coincidental.