Trump says Iran war largely cost Republicans election

• Trump called it largely accurate that the Iran war had cost Republicans the election.
• The war was worth it, he added.
• Iran must not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, he said.
• He said he would probably get along with Democrats.
• Had he been on the ballot, Republicans would have won, he said.
• The affection voters felt for him could not be transferred to other candidates.
• An impeachment effort would destroy the Democratic Party, he said.

JD Vance has also produced a detailed post-election analysis that places the blame on the Iran war. The essay is worth a look, but that does not mean Trump and the party are about to stop the war. At the same time, WTI crude oil was down $7.83 to $88.25 on the day, a sign the market expects either Trump or Congress to bring an extremely unpopular war to a close.

Vance's account:

Our data analysts were preoccupied with what they called "composition"—whether the electorate looked enough like 2024 for Republicans to win.

Even though polls suggested a Democratic landslide, the data kept delivering the same message: some states saw merely OK turnout, others saw spectacular turnout, and no state saw a collapse.

There was real optimism inside the team because our voters were turning out.

So I asked the sharpest data analyst I know whether that meant we would shock the world.

"No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

That prediction now looks prophetic.

The voters did turn out. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, only a couple of points behind 2024.

There were surely places where turnout could have been better, but turnout was not the main problem.

The core issue was that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

Expect considerable infighting and debate over what happened and why.

A pollster I admire said the campaign's economic message had dulled in the final stretch; I have no doubt that is right.

Yet the true cause of the defeat is clear to nearly everyone.

A different pollster, among the sharpest political minds I know, said the day before that the generic ballot would be lost by 13 points.

I went into Tuesday feeling pessimistic, but even I was taken aback.

In his surveys, many 2024 Trump voters were furious and intended to support Democrats.

He put that question to the voters who had left: what would win them back?

Four answers at the top accounted for almost all the responses:

1. Ending the war
2. Focusing on the cost of living and inflation
3. Putting America First
4. Changing the relationship with Israel

The turnout happened, and those four reasons are what drove so many to vote Democratic.

That finding comes from a pollster who called the outcome correctly.

Rachel Campos Duffy was criticized on Monday for advocating a diplomatic path on the conflict, but her advice proved sound. (She is also a great person.)

Over the coming months, prepare for plenty of gaslighting.

Count on establishment politicians to claim amnesty is the answer to our problems.

A shift in enforcement, such as concentrating on companies that employ illegal labor, is something I would entertain.

Anyone advocating amnesty is deceiving you.

The war caused the defeat, and the president himself acknowledged that last night.

If you think the war was worth it, including the loss of the Senate for the next 6 years, then say so.

Make the argument that the price was acceptable. It is an honest position whether you agree with it or not.

Still, the reason for the loss is known to all, and honest talk about the road ahead has to begin at that point.

I still have faith in our country's future.

For those who are angry and eager to say "I told you so": you were right and you did warn us. Direct that energy toward electing Republicans who hold your views.

And those simply upset at the outcome have good reason to be.

Let us put that anger into the task of saving the country.