Ueda's speech in focus as markets assess October rate hike possibility

Key points:

• On Tuesday, Ueda is speaking at the National Securities Convention in Tokyo, marking his first significant public comments since the September rate increase to 1.25%.
• The speech is scheduled for 2:35 p.m. in Tokyo, equivalent to 0635 GMT or 0235 US Eastern time.
• Traders view an October rate increase as improbable, with one probability estimate around 25%.
• Minutes from the July meeting indicated a hawkish stance. Conversely, the summary of opinions from September contained a comment saying there was no urgency.
• On Monday, Deputy Governor Uchida described artificial intelligence as a positive demand shock that is boosting economic activity and price pressures.
• Following Uchida's comments, the dollar-yen pair fell momentarily to roughly 157.5 before rebounding to near 158.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak at the National Securities Convention in Tokyo today. This is his first major public appearance since the central bank raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September. Forex traders will be watching for any hint that another consecutive hike might be discussed at the October policy gathering.

The September rate increase brought the benchmark rate to a 31-year high. Communication since then has been inconsistent. The July meeting minutes, released in late September, revealed board members were inclined toward additional tightening, with some contending the bank should prevent inflation from exceeding the 2% goal. Ueda left the timing and pace of future moves vague while confirming the upward path. In contrast, the September meeting's summary of opinions, issued on October 1, featured a remark that there was no hurry. Additionally, a government representative reportedly called for caution on further increases.

Market prices mirror this uncertainty. A rate hike in October is considered the less probable scenario, with one estimate placing the probability at about 25%, although some analysts have noted the chance of successive increases.

Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida gave few concrete policy signals on Monday. His comments opened an academic conference on artificial intelligence and big data, but still emphasized vigilance regarding inflation. Uchida called AI a major positive demand shock that is increasing pressure on activity and prices. He stated that it had eased financial conditions by raising stock prices, even as heavy bond issuance from AI-related firms pushed up long-term yields. On the whole, he indicated that the demand-side effect is appearing first and leaving conditions more accommodative. He also cautioned about correction risk if projected profits fail to materialize. After his remarks, USD/JPY dipped momentarily to about 157.5 before recovering to near 158.

This context lends additional significance to Tuesday's address, as Ueda has historically used public events to guide expectations prior to policy decisions. Some market observers anticipate his tone will be mostly similar to September, which would reduce the market response.

The main questions center on whether he will call current financial conditions accommodative, how he will discuss yen depreciation and its transmission to core inflation, and whether he will indicate that the bank requires more time to evaluate the effects of the September increase. Japanese wage and household expenditure figures, also released on Tuesday, provide additional context.