Record Hedge Fund Treasury Holdings: Basis Trade Unwind Risks
Hedge funds held a record 7% of US Treasurys at end-2025. Regulators warn that leveraged basis trades could amplify turmoil if they unwind.
The final UK manufacturing PMI for September was 51.9, down from the flash estimate of 52.0, as output growth slowed and price pressures increased.
Main findings from the survey:
Commentary from the survey director:
Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated:
“A disappointing September PMI saw the rate of increase in UK manufacturing production slow further. Output growth was its weakest seen over the past six months, with orders and exports growing only modestly. Slower demand growth was to be expected given the higher energy prices seen during the month.
"The big shift in September was in the survey's price measures, which switched from signalling a decline in inflationary pressures to a renewed uplift. After hitting conflict-driven highs earlier in the year, rates of increase in both input costs and factory gate selling prices accelerated for the first time since May. Energy and electronics prices remain especially elevated, while supply disruptions and rising diesel prices are now hitting transportation costs across industry. These price moves will be closely watched by the Bank of England for any signs of a more sustained and broader price uplift potentially taking hold.
“There are still some positive shoots of growth looking ahead, however, as manufacturers remain generally positive about the outlook. Almost half expect output to rise over the coming year. Confidence nevertheless remains subdued compared to that seen prior to the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, dampened not only by geopolitical issues but also reflecting uncertainty over policy direction at home. The upcoming Budget will therefore likely prove material in steering confidence.”
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Hedge funds held a record 7% of US Treasurys at end-2025. Regulators warn that leveraged basis trades could amplify turmoil if they unwind.
US job cuts fell to 43,281 in September. Persistent weakness in hiring plans keeps focus on the NFP report.
10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.33%, highest since 2007, pressuring stocks.
Eurozone final manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 in September, a 52-month high, as price pressures intensified.