Record Hedge Fund Treasury Holdings: Basis Trade Unwind Risks
Hedge funds held a record 7% of US Treasurys at end-2025. Regulators warn that leveraged basis trades could amplify turmoil if they unwind.
10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.33%, highest since 2007, pressuring stocks.
It should come as no surprise — the bond market is again applying pressure on equities.
After a brief reprieve earlier in the session, 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.33%, their highest since 2007. The strain on stocks is becoming more evident.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, after earlier having gained as much as 0.5%. Nasdaq futures remained up 0.4%, but this was sharply down from a 1.1% advance earlier. In Europe, selling was heavier: Germany's DAX dropped 1.3% and France's CAC 40 fell 1.6%.
The more telling development was the fading gains in US futures.
Equities had initially been able to look past the yield rise, helped by continued optimism about AI and tech following Micron's earnings beat the day before. However, there comes a point when the bond market can no longer be ignored.
That point was reached again as yields surged to 5.33% after having eased to 5.27% earlier.
The problem for wider markets is not the headline level alone. It is that Treasury yields have been climbing relentlessly as markets grapple with persistent inflation risks, elevated energy prices, and the possibility that stronger growth keeps interest rates higher for longer.
This leaves equities facing the same uncomfortable question as in most of September: how much further can yields rise before something gives?
For now, technology shares continue to show some resilience. But for everything else, the day's price action is another reminder that the bond market remains in the driver's seat.
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Hedge funds held a record 7% of US Treasurys at end-2025. Regulators warn that leveraged basis trades could amplify turmoil if they unwind.
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