Upcoming Week: Inflation Data and Central Bank Minutes in Focus

The trading week will begin quietly on Monday, with only a handful of speeches from Federal Open Market Committee members scheduled.

Tuesday brings the Westpac consumer sentiment index from Australia, alongside the release of meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada. The highlight, however, will be the inflation data from the United States.

The BoJ maintained its rate at 1.25% during the previous meeting. Market participants will scrutinize the Summary of Opinions for indications regarding potential future rate increases and policymakers' assessments of inflationary trends.

In a similar vein, the BoC's Summary of Deliberations will offer deeper insight into the central bank's decision to raise rates. Higher energy costs and resulting price pressures were cited as supporting arguments, while weaker economic growth and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs were counterpoints for holding steady. Attention will center on any signals of additional tightening, though the bank has indicated a cautious stance given the existing uncertainty.

Wednesday's calendar is light, with both Canada and the U.S. observing bank holidays. Thursday shifts the focus to the U.K.'s GDP figures.

The week concludes with the U.S. producer price index monthly release, though several FOMC members are scheduled to speak throughout the period.

In the U.S., the consensus estimate for core CPI month-over-month stands at 0.2%, down from the prior 0.3%. Headline CPI month-over-month is forecast at 0.3%, compared with 0.6% previously.

This CPI release presents a unique situation: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish year-over-year figures due to missing data from the October 2025 government shutdown, placing greater emphasis on the monthly numbers.

Headline CPI is projected to rise 0.28%. Slower gasoline inflation is expected to be partially offset by higher food costs, as increased commodity and transportation expenses are passed on to consumers.

Core CPI is also anticipated to increase, albeit at a more moderate pace. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect goods inflation to moderate, particularly as the previous increases in clothing and toy prices are unlikely to recur. Within services, shelter inflation is predicted to return to a more typical pace, while travel-related costs should ease somewhat following earlier rises in airfare and hotel prices.

A softer core inflation reading would provide some relief after last month's upside surprise, but the overall disinflation process remains slow and uneven, reinforcing the case for another rate hike at the December meeting, according to Wells Fargo. Meanwhile, Scotiabank analysts note that alternative data sources, including Bloomberg's price project, point to a recent uptick in headline inflation on a year-over-year basis.

The U.S. will also release PPI data on Friday, though the annual reading faces the same limitations as CPI due to missing data. The month-over-month figure is forecast at 0.4%, versus the prior 1.3%.

In the U.K., the consensus for GDP month-over-month is 0.0%, compared with the prior 0.1%, while preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter is expected at 0.7%, up from 0.5%. Growth has been driven primarily by business services and investment spending, particularly in AI and technology-related activities.

However, higher energy bills and mortgage costs continue to weigh on household spending and consumer-facing sectors. Survey data indicates that growth momentum weakened toward the end of the quarter, Wells Fargo analysts said. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England faces a difficult balancing act. Inflation remains a concern, while resilient economic activity gives policymakers less room to postpone further tightening. The BoE delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike at its last meeting, with another increase expected in the first quarter of next year.