Vance predicts Iran war to shift phase in months

Vance's remarks directly affect the shipping and freight dynamics that have influenced Gulf and Asian oil markets for several months. If his assertion that Hormuz traffic has exceeded half its normal level is correct, it would indicate significantly improved outflows from the Gulf and reduced upward pressure on freight rates and crude prices. However, that number is far higher than independent shipping data, including recent US Central Command and tracking estimates, which show daily transits at a much lower percentage of pre-war volumes. Until Vance's figures are confirmed by independent trackers, markets will probably continue relying on the lower, independently verified traffic estimates rather than the administration's more optimistic view, meaning the elevated freight and supply risk premium in oil is unlikely to ease based solely on this statement.

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Earlier:

• Asian oil shipping costs climb as US-Iran war and supply risks continue

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Vance claims the Iran conflict will alter in a few months, but his Hormuz recovery figures far exceed independent tracking data.

Summary:

• US Vice President JD Vance stated the Iran conflict will enter "a completely different phase" within months, and could conclude after the November midterms if Trump refrains from escalating further.
• He described the conflict as having two phases: first eliminating Iran's nuclear and conventional military capacity, then preventing Iran from rebuilding and maintaining regional stability.
• Vance said the US is currently responding to Iranian attacks on commercial ships rather than conducting offensive operations.
• He claimed shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to over half of normal levels.
• Independent shipping trackers and recent US Central Command data place Hormuz traffic far lower, typically between 10% and 25% of pre-war volumes.
• Vance said the future depends on whether Trump escalates after the midterms or Iran becomes more willing to negotiate.

According to a report by the New York Post (may be gated), US Vice President JD Vance stated the Iran conflict will enter "a completely different phase" in a few months, and he echoed President Trump's view that the war might wind down after the November midterm elections.

Vance asserted that Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic has rebounded to more than 50% of its normal volume, arguing that Iran's grip on the waterway is weakening. That figure is far above independent estimates. Shipping trackers and US Central Command data from recent weeks show daily transits at a small fraction of the roughly 130 vessels per day that passed through the strait before the war started in February, with some assessments this month placing traffic between 10% and 25% of pre-war levels. The difference between Vance's description and those numbers leaves his claim about the recovery rate unsubstantiated.

Vance stated the US is not now engaging in offensive operations against Iran, characterizing current actions as reactions to Iranian strikes on commercial vessels. He outlined a two-phase strategy for the conflict: a first phase aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear program and weakening its conventional military and regional power projection, and a second phase designed to stop Iran from rebuilding those capabilities and to keep regional stability.

Regarding how the conflict might end, Vance said the result will hinge on two factors: whether Trump decides to escalate US operations after the midterms, and whether Iran becomes more inclined to negotiate a settlement. This framing makes the timeline for any resolution dependent on decisions that neither side has taken yet, and continues a trend where senior administration officials have provided inconsistent descriptions of the conflict's length and its official designation as a war.

These statements coincide with the ongoing economic and shipping impact of the conflict, which persists across Asian and Gulf oil markets, with high freight costs and disrupted supply routes still hampering trade through the area months after hostilities started.