VanEck's Matthew Sigel Repeats $100,000 Bitcoin Target for Next Year

Matthew Sigel, who leads digital assets research at VanEck, forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $100,000 within the next year, citing government debt levels as a supporting factor.

The prediction came during Sigel's appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia on Friday, when Bitcoin was trading around $77,400. The week had seen crypto under pressure from three fronts simultaneously.

Bitcoin Weathers a Tough Week of Policy Decisions

On Friday, Bitcoin traded at $77,403, a daily increase of 1.26% and a monthly gain exceeding 20%, per BeInCrypto Markets data.

Bitcoin remains approximately 39% beneath its all-time high of above $126,000 from October 6, 2025.

This monthly increase came amid a difficult period for risk assets. The Federal Reserve hiked its key rate by 25 basis points to a target interval of 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, marking the first such move since 2023. The Bank of Japan then raised its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since 1995.

The crypto sector also saw its largest legislative victory slip away. On Tuesday, the Senate voted 49-50 against cloture on the Clarity Act, leaving the market-structure legislation stranded. Despite the Fed and Senate outcomes, Bitcoin's price remained steady, though on-chain metrics deteriorated.

Sigel's Rationale for the $100,000 Bitcoin Forecast

Sigel contended that heavily indebted governments account for Bitcoin's resilience. He pointed out that volatility is now half what it was four years ago, a departure from the previous cycle.

He also highlighted that traders are paying more for puts than calls and referred to the Treasury bond buyback program, which prompted significant short covering. In his view, this served as a reminder that the calendar "very much in your favor if you're a bitcoin bull."

"Very unlikely that policymakers are going to address this unsustainable fiscal dynamic, and then as and if liquidity eases, you know that would be a turbocharge for Bitcoin," he said.

Sigel stated that discussions with advisors and sovereign wealth funds indicate that institutional clients are all purchasing.

This $100,000 prediction is not a novel one. Sigel first mentioned that figure in April and reiterated it in August, also setting a $500,000 target for 2029. In May, he outlined a long-term thesis for $1 million within the next several years.

Based on Friday's price, Bitcoin requires a 29% increase to hit $100,000. The 2029 target would need about a 546% rise, and the $1 million goal is approximately 1,192% away.