Ethereum's 6% Bounce Meets ETF Outflow Streak

Ethereum's price has risen approximately 6% over the past week, now challenging the resistance zone around $2,439. Yet data from Glassnode shows US spot ETF investors have recorded zero net inflow days since September 29.

While some traders claim institutional adoption has moved ahead of price, on-chain metrics indicate weakening demand supporting the recent rise.

$ETH is the sleeper of this cycle.

BlackRock tokenized on it. Stablecoins settle on it. Wall Street builds on it.

Price? Still $2,325.

Second test of a band that’s held since 2018.
Last time it got tested twice: $90 to $4,800.

Same setup. Same silence. You know what comes…

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) November 4, 2026

Ethereum On-Chain Data Flashes Warning Signs

According to Glassnode, the 14-day moving average of active Ethereum addresses dropped to about 365,000 on October 17, marking the lowest level since December 2025.

Since then, the metric has seen only a modest recovery to roughly 375,000, and is now edging back towards the October low.

Compared to the February 9 peak of nearly 800,000, the decline appears more pronounced. However, that surge occurred during a steep sell-off and was probably a result of capitulation.

A more appropriate baseline is the spring range between 500,000 and 550,000. Relative to that range, activity remains about 25% to 30% lower.

Crucially, activity and price have diverged. Active addresses topped out at roughly 470,000 in mid-August and then dropped over the course of the August and September rally.

This indicates that the rally towards $2,800 did not enjoy widespread network participation. Note that this metric only counts mainnet addresses; L2 network activity is not included.

In the meantime, long-dormant whales transferred over $140 million in ETH in October. If the metric recovers above the mid-August high of roughly 470,000, the bearish signal would weaken.

ETF Investors Have Not Bought a Single Day in Five Weeks

ETF demand paints the same picture. US spot Ethereum ETFs have seen no net inflow days since September 29, according to Glassnode.

As of October 30, the streak had extended to 23 consecutive outflow sessions. This marks the longest run since the funds' inception, per Glassnode data.

October witnessed $1.61 billion in outflows, the largest monthly figure since their July 2024 launch. SoSoValue reports that on November 3, the funds saw an additional $85.35 million exit.

There is a slight discrepancy among data providers. SoSoValue noted a minor net inflow of $15 million on October 21, a solitary interruption in an otherwise consistent outflow.

These flows also shed light on the previous rally. The August surge in ETH came alongside the largest wave of inflows seen on record, with multiple sessions exceeding 70,000 ETH.

That demand has since reversed. With network activity also declining, no obvious buyer has emerged to fill the gap. A return to steady daily inflows would be the most evident indicator of renewing institutional interest.

Ethereum Price Analysis Shows a Fight for $2,439

On the weekly timeframe, ETH is still in a downtrend. Every significant peak since the all-time high of $4,958 has been lower.

Price peaked around $3,400 at the start of the year and near $2,800 in late September. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,920, which served as support in 2024, became resistance in 2026.

Lows have also dropped, from approximately $1,750 in February to around $1,520 in mid-2026. Still, the local structure has strengthened since then.

The September peak surpassed the spring high near $2,470, creating a higher high. If a higher low forms at current levels, it would complete a local uptrend and might indicate a trend reversal.

The weekly RSI is around 50, indicating neutral territory. It is still below its signal line, so momentum has yet to confirm a change.

Volume has declined since February, suggesting consolidation rather than accumulation. The 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1,754 remains the most robust support, having been tested at least four times since 2023.

Daily Chart Shows a Bounce Inside a Rising Wedge

On the daily chart, ETH is bouncing off a rising trend line around $2,200. This line has supported price since the late-June low.

The most recent daily candle has moved above the Bollinger Bands midline and is now testing the 0.618 retracement at $2,439. The daily RSI has also moved above its signal line.

However, the Bollinger Bands are tightening. A squeeze usually comes before a sharp move, but it does not indicate direction.

Volume has been trending lower since August, so the breakout attempt is not yet confirmed. Additionally, the two trend lines are converging into a rising wedge, which typically resolves downwards.

The upper wedge line intersects the 0.5 Fibonacci level between $2,920 and $2,950, forming a significant resistance zone above current price.

ETH Price Prediction Hinges on the $2,200 Line

If ETH closes above $2,439 on a daily basis, it could target the upper Bollinger Band near $2,500. Further upside would aim for $2,920 to $2,950, approximately 21% above $2,410.

A daily close below $2,200 would confirm a wedge breakdown. That case would target $1,754, roughly 27% below $2,410.

The downside target is slightly larger in percentage terms. Together with weak on-chain metrics, the risk currently seems skewed towards the bearish scenario.

Nonetheless, bulls have some backing. The large exchange outflows in October echoed a pattern observed before the June rebound. Ethereum's upcoming major upgrade, Glamsterdam, could also provide a fundamental catalyst.

Long-term bulls also cite macro indicators. Analyst Ted Pillows connects ETH's previous parabolic moves to US manufacturing growth.

ISM Expansion = $ETH going parabolic

It happened in 2017 and 2021 and will happen in 2027-28 again.

— Ted (@TedPillows) November 4, 2026

However, the ISM manufacturing index stood at 55.5 in October, the tenth consecutive month of expansion, yet ETH declined during that time.

At present, the rally requires either a revival in ETF demand or a recovery in network activity to sustain itself. Without these, $2,200 will be the key level determining the next direction.