Vitalik Buterin Dismisses AI-Driven Bitcoin Crash Prediction

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has pushed back against a forecast that artificial intelligence could trigger a steep decline in Bitcoin's price, taking the opposing view on a claim that the cryptocurrency might shed more than half its value within two years.

The debate unfolded on X on Monday, initiated by AI risk commentator Liron Shapira. Buterin responded that his personal portfolio already reflects the opposite stance.

Origins of the AI and Bitcoin Crash Hypothesis

Shapira, who hosts the Doom Debates podcast focused on AI risk, delivered his forecast on Monday. He expressed 50% confidence that Bitcoin prices would drop by more than 50% over a two-year period.

His rationale for an AI-triggered Bitcoin collapse centers on security rather than demand. According to Shapira, AI will undermine the assurances that holders believed protected the network. Buterin replied in the same thread within hours.

I take the opposite side of that.

My basic reasons are that I am quite optimistic about cybersecurity in the long term and I see the primary problem as being getting the transition, and I expect BTC to handle at least any issues that do not require social consensus well…

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) September 7, 2026

Bitcoin's security depends on mining power and cryptographic hashing. Shapira did not specify which aspect of Bitcoin's defenses AI would compromise. Similar concerns about AI-powered cyberattacks have circulated throughout the technology sector this year.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $79,827, meaning a 50% decline would bring it toward $40,000.

Buterin's Confidence in the Network's Resilience

Buterin stated he is optimistic about cybersecurity over the long term, viewing the transition itself as the greater challenge.

He anticipates Bitcoin will manage any issues that do not require social consensus. Upgrading clients and mining pools against network-layer attacks falls into that category. He considers the probability of an actual breach in hashes or proof of work to be near zero.

Buterin also assumed Shapira would take the same position regarding Ethereum, given that both men hold crypto assets that would likely decline together.

Ethereum has been preparing throughout 2026 for the threat posed by quantum computing. Researchers have begun estimating the expense of migrating to post-quantum cryptography.

Rather than placing a wager on the dispute, Buterin referenced his own financial position.

“I would offer a bet, but given what my holdings are I’m basically taking this bet … with ~90% of my net worth already,” Buterin, said via X post

The AI-driven Bitcoin crash argument now depends on timing. Shapira has two years to validate his theory, while Buterin has already taken the opposing position.