XRP Holds at $1.40 as Market Activity Dries Up

At the start of September, Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow. By day's end, only 300 million remained outside the new time locks.

XRP's price still hovers around $1.40. The headline may have a bearish tone, but on-chain data shows the event was less dramatic than it appeared.

Ripple Unlocked a Billion XRP, Then Locked 700 Million Again

Three previous escrow contracts expired, releasing 500 million, 400 million, and 100 million XRP respectively. Within hours, two new escrow contracts locked up 500 million and 200 million XRP again.

This leaves 300 million XRP, worth about $422 million, outside the new locks. The tokens moved between wallets labeled as Ripple's, so the monthly release is not a sale or exchange deposit. Still, it is significant.

The significance lies in the market's inability to absorb it. Buy orders near the current price total $108.2 million, meaning the 300 million coins are worth nearly four times what buyers are prepared to take.

The market only remained stable because no one put it to the test.

Older XRP Tokens Have Stopped Moving, and Trading Volume Has Dropped Too

Thus the coins remain in place. The key question is who is willing to transfer them, and the answer is very few.

The proportion of XRP held for one to two years increased from 17.3% of supply in late August to approximately 18.2% now. Consequently, the oldest coins are not being moved, and even after the price decline since August 22, those holders have not sold into the dip.

This stasis cuts both ways. Daily trading volume has fallen in every session since the August 22 spike, reaching about 27.6 million XRP. Thus interest appears to be confined to long-term holders.

Meanwhile, the price chart is approaching a golden cross, where the 20-day exponential moving average (which gives more weight to recent closing prices) moves above the slower 200-day moving average. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3516, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.3540, so a crossover could happen on any reasonably strong day. However, crossovers that occur on declining volume tend to fail.

XRP Initially Led the Rally, Then Lost Its Leadership

Declining volume manifests as a loss of leadership. Over 21 trading sessions, XRP rose 42.4%, compared to Bitcoin's 27.0% and Ethereum's 33.8%.

In the last 14 days, XRP was the weakest among 20 large-cap coins relative to that pair, underperforming by 5.7%.

Futures markets echo the pattern. When counting accounts, large traders appear confident, with 2.86 long positions for every short, compared to 2.46 for retail traders.

When weighting bets by dollar amount, the picture reverses. By size, the ratio falls to 2.09, lower than the retail count. Most large accounts are bullish but with small positions, while their short positions are larger.

XRP is among four major cryptocurrencies where this gap is negative.

Key Price Levels That Will Determine XRP's Direction

Everything hinges on a single price level. XRP is trading at $1.4079, above both moving averages, which keeps the recovery intact. Confirmation is at $1.4785, roughly 5% higher, a level that has resisted every bounce since late August.

Breaking above that level targets $1.5832, then the $1.6678 to $1.7038 range near the August high, representing a 21% gain from the current price. A daily close below $1.3092 would invalidate the structure.

Analyst’s View: No one is selling XRP, and no one is buying it. Prices only climb when a buyer appears willing to pay more, and that buyer is not present now.