Yields rise, Nvidia slips, dollar mixed in morning trade

After the holiday break, bond traders have resumed activity with yields climbing. Nvidia's slide is also drawing stock traders' attention.

U.S. Treasury yields have moved higher across the curve following the Veterans Day reopen. The 10-year yield is back above 5%, with the largest gains at the short end. This keeps rates in focus for traders awaiting economic data.

Nvidia shares are a key focus, down about 7.5% to $160.64 in early trade. Higher yields combined with weakness in a major AI stock create a tougher backdrop for tech shares as North American markets open.

Nvidia's key support area is under threat.

Reuters reports that Nvidia's board has been meeting to discuss CEO Jensen Huang's future amid investigations and reports about his personal relationships. The near-term market issue is uncertainty about leadership and continuity at a central AI firm. The coverage concerns a possible change at the top; it does not confirm a removal.

For traders, the technical chart provides a level to measure that uncertainty against.

At $160.64, Nvidia is trading below the critical swing zone of $164.07 to $168.80. An opening near that level would put the stock under the full support area, giving sellers the stronger hand.

The open question is whether the price stays below that broken floor after early volatility settles. A move back above $164.07 would be the first repair step. Buyers would then need to push through $168.80 to reclaim the entire area.

Until then, the former floor acts as overhead resistance. Staying below is more bearish.

Shorter-term Treasury yields pace the rise.

Yields across tenures this morning:

• The 2-year rate has risen 3.82 basis points to 4.7652%.

• The 5-year rate has risen 3.76 basis points to 4.8426%.

• The 10-year rate is up 1.90 basis points at 5.0080%.

• The 30-year rate gained 0.67 basis point to 5.3557%.

The 10-year crossing 5% is a simple headline. The broader message is that borrowing costs remain high. Higher yields can require investors to be more demanding about what they pay for future earnings, adding another factor for tech stocks already dealing with Nvidia's drop.

Dollar trade mixed versus peers.

The U.S. dollar has advanced against the Australian dollar, sterling, New Zealand dollar and euro, while declining versus the Swiss franc, yen and Canadian dollar.

The Australian dollar has fallen the most versus the greenback, with AUDUSD down 0.31%. The Swiss franc has been the strongest, with USDCHF down 0.11%.

Currency moves in detail:

• EURUSD at 1.1086, lower by 0.03%.

• GBPUSD at 1.3267, off 0.10%.

• AUDUSD at 0.6825, down 0.31%.

• NZDUSD at 0.5560, off 0.04%.

• USDJPY at 159.64, declining 0.08%.

• USDCHF at 0.8322, lower by 0.11%.

• USDCAD at 1.4244, off 0.05%.

The higher Treasury yields have not produced a uniform dollar advance. That makes each pair's chart relevant. Traders need to see where buyers can defend support and where sellers can cap rallies.

UK monthly figures beat forecasts, but sterling declines.

The UK's monthly activity measures were mostly better than expected. GDP rose 0.2% vs. a forecast of no growth. Industrial output increased 0.3% compared with a predicted 0.4% fall, and manufacturing production rose 0.7% against expectations for a 0.5% decline.

Construction output also topped estimates, gaining 0.8% versus a flat forecast. Quarterly GDP growth matched the 0.7% estimate, up from 0.5% prior.

Trade numbers were less encouraging. The goods deficit widened to £22.3 billion from £19.6 billion, above the £19.2 billion expected.

Despite the stronger monthly readings, GBPUSD is slightly lower. Better data have not given buyers sustained control.

Most currency pairs have room to extend farther.

Based on a 22-day average-range benchmark (about a month of trading):

• EURUSD: 36 pips moved, 52% of its 69-pip average range.

• GBPUSD: 32 pips, 41% of a 78-pip average.

• USDJPY: 47 pips, 52% of a 90-pip average.

• USDCHF: 25 pips, 42% of a 60-pip average.

• USDCAD: 29 pips, 43% of a 67-pip average.

• AUDUSD: 40 pips, 74% of a 54-pip average.

• NZDUSD: 26 pips, 51% of a 51-pip average.

GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD have covered the smallest proportions of their typical monthly ranges. AUDUSD has moved the farthest relative to its average.

Most pairs have room to expand should data or a technical catalyst prompt action. The average is a reference only; it does not require the market to move a specific distance.

European shares trade broadly higher.

European stocks are mostly firmer this morning:

• DAX up 0.63%.

• CAC 40 up 0.61%.

• FTSE 100 up 0.24%.

• IBEX 35 up 0.05%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.04%.

• FTSE MIB down 0.19%.

Commodities and bitcoin see wide declines.

Crude oil trades at $85.87, down $0.66 or 0.76%, after ranging from $85.20 to $87.54.

Gold is lower too, around $3,935.83, off $51.87 or 1.30%. Silver has fallen 1.46% to about $50.88, and copper is down 1.40% at $6.2020.

Bitcoin is near $72,894, down $1,021 or 1.38%.

Gold's decline accompanies the rise in Treasury yields. The weakness extends across industrial metals, crude, and bitcoin, giving traders several markets to watch as North American involvement grows.

North American schedule for today.

• Initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET are forecast at 195K, versus 189K previously.

• Continuing jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET forecast at 1.710 million, down from 1.718 million.

• Existing home sales at 10 AM ET forecast at 3.85 million annualized, versus 3.99 million previously.

Claims offer the next labor market check. A lower figure would signal layoffs remain contained; a higher one would point to some softening.

Existing home sales will provide another take on housing against the backdrop of high borrowing costs.

Trading lesson: significance of swing areas.

Nvidia illustrates why a swing area matters. A floor is a zone where buyers have previously appeared. If the price opens below it, those buyers must prove they can recover it.

News stories drive the movement. Price action around the technical level helps define the trade and limit risk.