Yen Strength Bets Mount; Bitcoin Faces Carry Trade Risks
Hedge funds bet on yen strength, with dollar-yen options targeting below 150. Bitcoin may face pressure as cheap yen borrowing costs rise.
Hedge funds bet on yen strength, with dollar-yen options targeting below 150. Bitcoin may face pressure as cheap yen borrowing costs rise.
Factory confidence in Japan hit near five-year high in September Reuters Tankan, driven by chip demand; manufacturers index reached +21.
BOJ expected to hike rates next week, but yen rally may be limited if Ueda signals caution.
The yen hit a six-month high against the dollar as BOJ hike bets built, while China's August imports missed forecasts and the Kospi gained nearly 2%.
Japan's Q2 GDP was revised up to 1.4% annualised, reinforcing expectations that the BOJ will hike to 1.25% on September 18.
Japan's revised Q2 GDP came in at 1.4% year-on-year, above the preliminary 1.1% estimate.
Japan's real wages rose 2.4% in July, seventh straight gain, while nominal pay hit 4.7%, fastest since 1997, supporting BOJ rate hike.
Japan's July 2026 average cash earnings rose 4.7% year-on-year, beating the 3.9% forecast, and real wages increased 2.4%.
Japan's Q2 GDP revision out today could sway BOJ September rate hike odds, currently at 80%.
Japan's GDP and China trade data due Tuesday; preliminary Q2 GDP missed expectations.
USD broadly weakened, led by yen surge; USDJPY fell 1.22% to 154.33 on rising BOJ rate hike bets. Oil climbed $1.22 on Middle East tensions.
Bitcoin held above $79,000 during a 3.7% yen rally, avoiding the 20% crash seen in 2024. Japan spent $94.6B on intervention.
USDJPY dropped 1.15% as yen strengthened on BOJ rate hike bets. Geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher. EUR and GBP fell modestly.
USD/JPY plunged as markets price in likely back-to-back BOJ rate hikes, with September now nearly fully priced.
USD/JPY bounced near the 155.00 support after Fed's Waller turned dovish; markets await the US NFP report for further direction.