Barkin sees current rate-hike path mirroring 1990s 'mid-cycle adjustment'

With the Fed now in a rate-hiking cycle, the key question is how long it will last.

Barkin offered a clue, saying he would like to think this will be like the 1990s mid-cycle adjustment. The term 'mid-cycle adjustment' was popularized by Powell when he looked back at the 1990s.

Historically, that era contained two hiking cycles of 300 bps and 175 bps. The currently priced-in total of 105 bps (including the 25 bps already done) would be an anomaly for hiking cycles.

However, Barkin was comparing it to an easing cycle in the 1990s, when Greenspan cut rates by 75 bps over seven months at the end of 1995. So, directly applied, that analogue would be more dovish than current market pricing.