BCG: M&A boom only in megadeals, smaller deals lag

During the January-to-August period of 2026, worldwide M&A value exceeded its 10-year average by 11%, Boston Consulting Group reported.

Nearly all of the increase came from the upper tier of the market. Transaction volumes below the $1 billion mark continue to trail long-term averages.

Megadeals exceed record from 2021

Total deal value climbed 15% year-on-year through August, according to BCG. The figure reached $2.09 trillion in the first eight months, up from $1.82 trillion a year earlier.

The number of transactions worth $10 billion or more rose to 37, compared with 24 a year ago. That count surpassed the 32 megadeals recorded in the same period of 2021.

Overall deal value has not caught up, however. Over the same eight months in 2021 the total was $2.91 trillion, leaving 2026 roughly 28% lower despite having more megadeals.

Of this year’s megadeals, 27 involved a US buyer, a US target or both. Deals in the $250 million-to-$1 billion range stayed below average, as did those under $250 million, and these figures exclude inflation.

“Deal volumes in these segments remain below their longer-term averages, indicating that the global M&A market has not yet regained normal levels of breadth,” the report read.

This split matches a June projection from consulting firm PwC, which estimated that global M&A deal value would near $4 trillion in 2026 while deal counts fell 13%.

Regional and sector breakdowns tell the same story of concentration. North America accounted for more than half of aggregate deal value. European value rose 43% to $541 billion, while Asia-Pacific activity declined 27%.

BCG global M&A leader Jens Kengelbach pointed to execution capacity, not funding, as the current constraint.

“Capital and strategic appetite are available. The bottleneck has shifted to execution: finding transaction-ready assets, bridging valuation gaps, and clearing the operational and regulatory hurdles required to close,” he said.

AI spurs some deals, hinders others, BCG says

BCG’s analysis also examined how artificial intelligence is shaping the M&A market. Daniel Friedman, the firm’s global leader of transactions and integrations, said AI affects the market in two opposing directions.

“It’s a reason to do more deals and a reason some deals are harder to close. The companies that get furthest ahead are likely to be the ones that have actually worked out which is true for the asset in front of them,” he stated.

BCG cites a correction in software valuations and a private equity pullback as evidence of the second effect. Its M&A Sentiment Index, which blends market data with AI-based analysis of corporate communications, rose to 83 from 79 at the start of 2026, still well below the long-run average of 100.

Sector scores diverged sharply. Financial institutions and real estate posted 108, health care reached 100, while technology came in lowest at 52 and consumer at 64.

Crypto dealmaking followed the same pattern. Disclosed crypto M&A value hit a record $9.66 billion in the first half of 2026, even as announced deals fell 25% to 87.