Bitcoin falls further on oil recovery and rising rate hike expectations

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin's price has fallen this week due to unfavorable macro conditions. A sharp decline in oil prices, driven by hopes for a de-escalation and an early resolution to the conflict, had previously bolstered the crypto market. However, at the UN General Assembly, Trump dampened those hopes by reiterating that a US-Iran deal would occur after the November elections.

Risk sentiment turned sour as oil prices recovered, pulling cryptocurrencies down with them. The downward pressure intensified yesterday after the US Flash PMIs indicated much stronger growth than anticipated, prompting a further hawkish repricing that pushed Treasury yields to fresh peaks.

Market attention will continue to center on interest rate outlooks and events in the Middle East. Should investors perceive an early resolution or an unexpected breakthrough, oil prices would likely fall, providing support for Bitcoin. On the other hand, if conditions stay the same or deteriorate further, crude oil is expected to stay elevated at fresh highs, putting pressure on the crypto sector.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

Bitcoin has retraced to the broken resistance-turned-support area near 82,500. This level may attract buyers who will manage risk below the support, aiming for a rise to 90,000. Sellers, meanwhile, would want a breakdown below this level to target a fall to the major upward trendline around 79,000.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

A minor resistance zone near 85,000 exists. Should the price bounce from the support area, sellers are expected to act at resistance with a clear risk above it, aiming to push below support. Buyers, in contrast, will look for a rally above resistance to add to bullish positions targeting 90,000.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

A minor downward trendline defines the bearish momentum. Sellers may split their positions, leaning on both the trendline and the 85,000 resistance to aim for a break below support. Buyers will seek upside breaks to start accumulating for new highs.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today features the Trump-Xi meeting and US Jobless Claims data, but the primary focus remains on US-Iran developments and interest rate expectations.