Bitcoin Hovers Near $79,600 on Oil Recovery, BOE Rate Hike

On Thursday morning, bitcoin hovered near $79,600, roughly 2% higher than the previous day but approximately $21,900 lower than a year ago. The price dipped back below $80,000 as oil rebounded and the Bank of England increased its benchmark rate, per Bitcoin Magazine Pro figures.

At 8:05 a.m. ET, bitcoin was trading at $79,632, with a market capitalization near $1.60 trillion and approximately $35.2 billion in volume over the preceding 24 hours.

The latest price action partially reversed Wednesday's gains. On Wednesday, bitcoin remained near $80,000 through the afternoon and held above that threshold overnight, reaching a high just under $80,900 around 5 p.m. ET. It fell under $80,000 during the 7 a.m. ET hour on Thursday as stock futures diverged and oil strengthened.

The decline is modest compared to the week's broader range. Bitcoin was around $75,600 on election night, meaning Thursday's level is still over 5% above that trough.

Oil and rates steer sentiment

Oil was the driver behind Wednesday's relief rally and is now giving back some of those gains. On Thursday, Brent crude advanced $1.53, or 1.6%, to $96.15 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate increased 52 cents to $88.64. Both benchmarks had dropped over 8% on Wednesday, settling at their lowest levels since Aug. 31.

“The situation in the Middle East is still unresolved and that’s why there is some modest recovery in prices at the moment,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Energy prices serve as the primary link between the Iran conflict and inflation and interest rates, which matters for bitcoin. Lower crude prices relieve the Federal Reserve, while a rebound has the opposite effect.

The Bank of England made that connection clear on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to increase Bank Rate by a quarter percentage point to 4%, the first such move in over three years. Catherine Mann was the sole dissenter, advocating for a half-point increase. The bank stated that U.K. inflation is now projected to reach approximately 5% by mid-2026, attributing it to energy prices linked to a conflict “now in its ninth month.”

CNBC described it as the final major central bank to begin tightening after the start of the war, a signal that global interest rates remain a headwind for risk assets.

Stocks mixed, ETFs draw inflows

U.S. stock futures were mixed on Thursday morning following the Dow's strongest session since April 2025. Dow futures climbed 0.5%, S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures declined roughly 0.5% amid continued pressure on chip and data center names.

Demand for funds increased. On Wednesday, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $74.6 million, breaking a three-day streak of outflows that amounted to roughly $1.16 billion. Fidelity's FBTC saw inflows of $236.7 million, more than making up for a $201.2 million outflow from BlackRock's IBIT.

Miner supply continues to be a drag. Riot Platforms (RIOT) revealed on Wednesday that it sold 20,264 bitcoin so far this year to finance AI data centers, retaining 2,418 BTC.

Bitcoin price outlook

The shadow of policy uncertainty persists. House Democrats are already drafting their own market structure legislation that gives the SEC a larger role, and the committees with oversight of crypto shift to Democratic control in January.

The upcoming economic data presents a more immediate test for bitcoin. Weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, the October employment report is set for Friday, October CPI lands on Nov. 10, and the Fed's next rate decision occurs Dec. 9, as outlined in Tuesday's preview.

Bitcoin is still approximately 37% off its record high near $126,080. The key question is whether ETF demand continues if oil prices keep rising.

As of this writing, bitcoin was trading around $79,600.