Bitcoin remains in consolidation mode after neutral Fed decision fails to trigger rally

Bitcoin experienced a volatile session after the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday. As widely anticipated, the Fed held interest rates steady, and Chair Warsh's comments offered little new direction. While the decision was neutral and Treasury yields edged lower, it did not spark a lasting relief rally for the cryptocurrency.

Talks between the US and Iran remain at an impasse, though there has been increased activity this week. According to officials, the Trump administration is working on a temporary peace agreement with Iran, as reported by Semafor. If diplomatic efforts fail, military action could resume after the midterm elections, subject to Trump's approval.

Thursday brings a busy US economic calendar, including GDP, PCE inflation, and Jobless Claims data. These releases are unlikely to shift expectations for the Fed, given the upward revision to the central bank's growth outlook and the ability to estimate PCE from CPI and PPI data. Jobless Claims may be the key report, though a significant deterioration would be needed to move markets, as traders have become accustomed to strong figures.

A surprise breakthrough in US-Iran talks remains the main wildcard, as it could significantly alter the outlook by boosting growth expectations and easing inflation concerns. In that scenario, Bitcoin could rally to new highs.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

The daily chart shows bitcoin still consolidating near recent lows, with a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. On a pullback, sellers are expected to target the trendline with a defined risk above it, aiming for a drop to the 75,000 level. Buyers, meanwhile, want to see a break higher to position for a rally toward 98,000.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4-hour chart, a minor upward trendline defines recent price action. Buyers are likely to step in near the trendline with a defined risk below it, targeting a pullback to the downward trendline. Sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop to the 75,000 level.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The 1-hour chart offers little new information. Buyers have a better risk-to-reward setup around the trendline, while sellers need a break to open the door for new lows. The average daily range for today is defined by the red lines.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Thursday's US schedule includes GDP, PCE, and Jobless Claims figures. The week concludes on Friday with the US Employment Cost Index.