BTC Braces for Another Losing October Even as Four Bullish Signals Persist

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 4.10% since the month started, putting it on course for a second consecutive losing October. Four signs in price action, positioning, on-chain data and the broader macro picture are still tilted bullish.

Galaxy and Santiment both identify possible signs of a floor, while Glassnode's metrics indicate that recent buyers have pulled back. Bitcoin's November performance, on the other hand, is a reason for caution.

BTC Maintains Its Hold on the 50-Week Average

Since BeInCrypto flagged four risks for Bitcoin early in October, the cryptocurrency has drifted lower. Its longer-term chart structure, however, has not broken down.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, describes the 200-week average as Bitcoin's bear-market floor and the 50-week average as its ceiling. Bitcoin tested the floor in June and took back the ceiling in September after spending 44 weeks below it.

At $79,935, BTC is trading roughly 5% above the 50-week average, which currently stands at $75,812.

Galaxy studied four previous reclaims that followed runs of at least 20 weeks beneath the 50-week average. In all four cases, BTC never closed more than 8.4% below that reclaim level during the next year.

“Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” read the post.

Fast Money Has Already Exited

Galaxy's data also reveals who was selling during the downturn. Net long positions of asset managers in CME bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week when bitcoin recorded its all-time high.

Between September 2025 and June 2026, nine investment firms, among them Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, trimmed their reported spot bitcoin ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent.

US spot bitcoin ETFs, in the meantime, have accumulated 87,000 BTC since the June low.

Recent Buyers Pull Back as Retail Heads Out

While the big funds have stepped back, on-chain data follows the smaller buyers. Glassnode estimates that about 70% of short-term holder supply is in profit, down from nearly all of it in late September.

“For buyers who expect the uptrend to continue, that makes this a considerably better entry than a month ago,” the firm wrote.

Bitcoin has also shed roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, according to Santiment. The firm interprets that exodus as a possible bottom signal.

“Retail capitulation has historically been more constructive for price than a sudden flood of new buyers chasing rallies,” Santiment noted.

Washington's Debt Builds the Long-Term Case

The fourth signal sits outside crypto. On October 20, US federal debt hit $40.44 trillion, and fiscal 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit.

Galaxy contends that rolling over debt of this magnitude at rates near 5% could add to pressure on policymakers to tolerate inflation, potentially strengthening the argument for fixed-supply assets such as bitcoin.

That pressure builds over years, though, so it offers little guidance for near-term price moves.

November's Track Record Comes With a Caveat

Bitcoin's own history provides the main counterweight. According to Coinglass, November has ended higher in 63% of years since 2010, with a median gain of 10.26%.

Still, November rose in just 2 of the 5 years that followed a losing October. Last year, a 3.95% October decline was followed by a 17.49% November slide.

Santiment says a sustained move below $79,000 would postpone its bottom signal, while a climb back toward $82,500 would strengthen it.

Due in 4 days, the October close will reveal which side of that range bitcoin ends up on.