ETH bounces above $2,431 after Fed hike and Senate bill failure

Main takeaways

• Ethereum rose 1.7% to climb back above the $2,431 mark.
• Over Tuesday and Wednesday, US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $365.5 million in net outflows.
• If ETH breaks through $2,544, it could aim for $2,626; support is in the $2,269–$2,282 zone.

Despite the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years and the CLARITY Act's failure to move forward in the Senate, Ethereum added 1.7% in 24 hours to regain $2,431.

Exchange withdrawals, renewed buying in perpetual futures, and short liquidations indicate that crypto-native traders are purchasing the dip.

But ongoing net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs show that institutional interest stays low.

ETH stays above $2,400 following Fed rate increase

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%.

Markets had priced in the unanimous 12–0 vote, with over 90% probability ahead of the meeting. The majority of Fed officials also anticipate another rate rise by the close of 2026.

Higher rates typically weigh on cryptocurrencies as they increase borrowing costs and make yield-bearing investments more attractive.

Ethereum, however, held above $2,400, indicating that the rate decision was already factored in by traders.

The CLARITY Act's inability to get the 60 Senate votes needed for cloture caused a short-lived drop, after which buying resumed.

CryptoQuant data shows that over 152,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges on Tuesday, the biggest one-day net outflow since June.

On Wednesday, inflows briefly surpassed withdrawals, but the measure soon turned back to net outflows.

Big exchange withdrawals may indicate that holders are transferring ETH to private wallets instead of preparing to sell, and they also cut the available supply for trading, which could support prices if demand stays consistent.

But exchange flows might just be custodial movements and do not necessarily signify outright buying.

Ethereum's taker buy-sell ratio has moved back into buy-side zone after temporarily showing more aggressive selling on Tuesday.

This ratio compares market buy volume to sell volume in perpetual futures. A value above one means market-order buyers are more active than sellers.

Liquidation figures also suggest improving mood. On Tuesday, Ethereum saw $221 million in liquidations, with longs making up 88%.

In the following 24 hours, liquidations fell to $87.6 million, with shorts at $45.4 million, indicating that the price rise drove some bears to exit.

Open interest stayed near 13 million ETH over two days, and funding rates turned positive after a short negative spell.

Institutional flows are less encouraging. According to SoSoValue, US spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $224.1 million on Wednesday, after $141.4 million in withdrawals on Tuesday.

Thus, the ETFs lost $365.5 million combined over two sessions. This persistent ETF selling stands in contrast to the accumulation signs seen on exchanges and in derivatives.

This gap implies that crypto-native buyers might be absorbing the drop, while traditional investment products see redemptions.

ETH moves back above its 20-day EMA

Ethereum has climbed back above the $2,431 horizontal mark and its 20-day EMA, both of which served as key support over the past month.

Momentum gauges are neutral. The RSI is at 53, the Stochastic oscillator near 26, indicating consolidation rather than overbought territory.

The immediate resistance is $2,544. A sustained move above that could let ETH aim for $2,626 and then $2,786.

Should ETH fall below $2,431, the 50-day EMA at $2,282 and the 200-day EMA at $2,269 make up the next support. Below that are $2,172, the 100-day EMA at $2,163, and horizontal support at $1,961.