Ether faces continued pressure from geopolitical and macro risks; CPI data is next test

The fundamental picture for Ethereum remains a mix of positives and negatives: continued protocol development and institutional buying are supportive, while the macro backdrop is still a drag. US spot Ethereum ETFs have posted large outflows recently as risk appetite has faded.

Over the short term, geopolitics and macro conditions are likely to influence price action more than Ethereum's protocol upgrade in isolation. Elevated oil prices, lingering inflation concerns, higher Treasury yields and expectations of a hawkish Fed are all keeping the crypto market under strain, so traders are unlikely to start building positions for fresh highs until some of those worries ease.

Talks between Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are intensifying, heightening supply disruption risks and supporting crude prices.

Attention today turns to the US CPI report. The core month-on-month figure is the key focus for traders, as Fed officials have been looking at the monthly pace of core inflation to judge how many rate hikes are needed and how quickly policy should be tightened.

A print of 0.3% may not be enough for the market to fully price in an October hike, but 0.4% likely would. In that scenario, Ethereum would likely sell off as expectations are repriced in a hawkish direction. A number in line with forecasts, or softer, could instead spark a short-term relief rally in the cryptocurrency.

Ethereum technical analysis — daily time frame

The daily chart places Ethereum around the 2,360 support zone and the major trendline. Dip buyers are expected to show up around that support and the trendline, with risk defined below the trendline, positioning for a move toward 3,400. Sellers, on the other hand, need the price to break below the trendline to pave the way for lower levels, with 1,900 as the next target.

Ethereum technical analysis — 4-hour time frame

On the four-hour chart, the break below the minor ascending trendline triggered selling, with more sellers joining on the break and aiming for support at 2,360. A downward trendline near 2,600 could serve as resistance. If the price reaches that zone, sellers are expected to lean on the trendline, with risk defined above it, positioning for a drop back to the support area and the major uptrend line. Buyers, meanwhile, want to see the price break higher before piling in, targeting a rally to 3,400 next.

Ethereum technical analysis — 1-hour time frame

On the one-hour chart, the price is consolidating in a tight band between 2,485 and 2,535. A break to either side would likely boost momentum and extend the move. From a risk management perspective, it may be better to wait for the US CPI release, as surprises could produce large swings.

Upcoming catalysts

The US CPI report is due today. Tomorrow brings the US PPI, US Retail Sales and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.