Euro zone slowdown deepens as inflation stays sticky, vexing ECB
October PMI data show euro area growth cooling while inflation remains elevated, complicating ECB rate path.
Eurozone PMIs for August held steady, with growth matching July's pace and price pressures remaining elevated.
A rapid update on today's PMI figures:
Turning to the broader euro area figures, private-sector business activity expanded at a rate matching July's, which represented the fastest growth in eight months.
Output and new order inflows both rose at a steady pace similar to July's, although the August demand improvement matched the strongest reading since November of the previous year.
Employment also grew for the first time this year, helped by another month of robust and widespread sales growth.
On price pressures, they remained fairly stable: input cost increases edged down slightly, while output prices rose at the same rate as in July. Still, both inflation measures stayed high historically and above levels seen just before the US-Iran conflict.
This suggests inflation risks remain present but are not escalating uncontrollably for now. However, the prolonged US-Iran conflict raises the chance that higher price pressures become more ingrained in inflation expectations, something the ECB must watch.
Consequently, the central bank is expected to raise interest rates again this month to better prepare for the ongoing inflation struggle. Today's data will not alter that course.
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October PMI data show euro area growth cooling while inflation remains elevated, complicating ECB rate path.
UK flash services PMI came in at 53.1 in October, above the 51.8 estimate.
Eurozone October flash PMIs missed forecasts as growth continued at slowest pace, likely fueling ECB tightening speculation.
Germany's October flash manufacturing PMI was 54.2 versus 53.5 expected, while services and composite PMIs missed forecasts, pointing to slower activity.