French price gains accelerate in October, energy surge keeps ECB rate hike in view

• The final CPI figure for October in France stood at +3.4% year-on-year, matching the preliminary estimate.
• The prior month's reading was +3.1%.
• The final HICP for October in France was +3.7% year-on-year, below the preliminary +3.8%.
• The previous HICP reading was +3.4%.

The final report confirms an acceleration in French inflation pressures at the start of the fourth quarter. This is largely due to a 1.9% month-over-month increase in energy prices, which were 24.1% higher than a year earlier. The annual energy price gain follows increases of 16.7% in August and 21.3% in September.

Core annual inflation also accelerated, rising to 1.7% in October from 1.5% in September. Services inflation continued its upward trend, hitting 2.6% in October compared with 2.4% in September and 1.9% in August.

This reaffirms that price pressures in France, Europe's second-largest economy, are still intensifying. The timing is challenging: economic growth is struggling and fiscal risks are rising, making it an inopportune backdrop for policymakers to manage higher inflation.

This will keep ECB policymakers alert as they decide on the next steps. The report will likely reinforce expectations of a rate hike in December, with markets pricing in roughly 82% odds of that happening at present.