Fundstrat's Lee Sees September Crash Fear Sparking Rally, Bitcoin to $150k

Tom Lee of Fundstrat views widespread anxiety about a September crash as a contrary signal. He argues that a market so braced for weakness could instead rally, potentially pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to $150,000.

Lee has not abandoned his correction call. He has shifted it, pegging the September 15 Federal Reserve meeting as the moment that will determine direction.

The September Fear Lee Is Betting Against

That fear is grounded in historical data: over 10 US midterm election years since 1986, the stock market's average low occurred on September 2.

These lows followed an average decline of 16.77% from the prior high. That track record is why investors are watching the current September pattern closely.

This year introduces a hawkish element. Three Fed presidents voted for a rate increase in July rather than a cut. Chair Kevin Warsh then used his inaugural Jackson Hole address to prioritize inflation. The six-month PCE inflation rate stood at 4.1%.

Bond markets reflect a similar story: the 30-year Treasury yield has stayed above 5%, well above the effective fed funds rate near 3.63%.

“I'm actually now thinking because of all this mounting concern, the market might surprise us to the upside,” Lee said, implying he sees the market consensus as too bearish.

Why September 15 Decides Direction

Throughout August, Lee expected these concerns to converge and cost equities roughly 10%. Weak seasonality, talk of rate hikes, and the AI data center backlash all pointed the same way.

His baseline is now that policymakers will neither hike nor cut.

“If the Fed doesn't cut, doesn't hike, which is our base case, I think actually the markets could rally very strongly,” he added in a CNBC interview.

If the pullback extends into October, Lee envisions it starting above 8,000 on the S&P 500, with a low possibly near 7,300.

Bitcoin Could Reach $150,000, Tom Lee Says

Bitcoin currently trades near $78,875, up 0.3% over the past day. BTC remains about 37% below its October 2025 record high.

Lee describes the past year as a shallow crypto winter caused by forced selling rather than broken fundamentals. He argues that very few investors still hold crypto.

He identifies four catalysts.

• Crypto led all macro assets in Q3
• The four-year crypto cycle ends next month
• Korean traders are rotating back from AI stocks
• The CLARITY Act, a US digital asset market structure bill that assigns regulatory oversight, could pass this year

Rising inflows into institutional crypto ETFs reinforce his view that larger buyers are positioning for a strong Q4.

Lee still sees $150,000 as possible for Bitcoin, alongside an S&P 500 above 8,200. That would constitute about a 2x gain for Bitcoin. Both depend on earnings estimates that keep rising.

New jobs and inflation data are due before the meeting. Lee says weak numbers on both would stop traders from pricing in any hike.