Gold consolidates near $4,000 as traders eye FOMC and geopolitical risks

Gold remains trapped in a consolidation phase around the $4,000 mark while market participants await key drivers to determine the next move. The first catalyst arrives with Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision, where the central bank is largely anticipated to hold interest rates steady and maintain its current policy approach.

A relief rally could materialise if the Fed acts as expected. Conversely, a surprise rate increase would likely intensify bearish pressure.

Ongoing developments in the Middle East continue to command attention, given the persistent threat of further military confrontation between the United States and Iran.

Next week's US midterm elections may also serve as a significant driver for the precious metal. A Democratic sweep could push long-term Treasury yields lower on expectations of tighter fiscal discipline, while maintaining elevated inflation expectations due to the conflict with Iran.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, gold is trading in a narrow band near the $4,000 level as the market awaits the FOMC decision. Should the price dip further, buyers are expected to emerge around the $3,885 support zone, with a clearly defined risk below the major trendline, positioning for a climb toward new all-time highs. Sellers, meanwhile, are watching for a breakdown below the trendline to ramp up bearish wagers targeting the $3,500 region.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The 4-hour chart highlights the sideways price action around the $4,000 area. A pullback toward the $4,070 resistance could attract sellers, who would set their risk above that level, aiming once again for the $3,885 support. On the flip side, buyers are looking for a breakout to the upside to extend the recovery toward the descending trendline.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The 1-hour chart shows a minor support zone near $3,980, a level that has rejected price multiple times in recent sessions. Sellers want to see a break below this area to accelerate bearish bets toward $3,885, while buyers are likely to step in once more at that support, with risk set beneath it, aiming for a bounce back to the $4,070 resistance. The red lines mark today's average daily range.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today's US Consumer Confidence report is due. Wednesday brings the FOMC rate decision. Thursday features US GDP, PCE data, and the latest weekly jobless claims. The week concludes on Friday with the US Employment Cost Index.