Intel shares climb 10% on analyst upgrade and pricing expectations

Intel shares surged 10% during the session, buoyed by an analyst upgrade, potential pricing power, and brighter outlook for its foundry business.

Northland Securities raised its rating on Intel to Outperform from Market Perform, setting a $120 price target. Analyst Gus Richard cited better execution in the company's turnaround, constrained server processor supply, and the possible advantage from Intel's reported participation in Tesla's Terafab semiconductor project.

Should that partnership materialize, it could give a significant lift to Intel Foundry, the unit that makes chips for external clients.

Separately, DigiTimes said Intel might increase CPU prices by up to 10%. With steady demand and tight processor supply, higher prices could aid Intel in boosting margins and reinforcing its financial and manufacturing standing.

These underlying factors have provided a rationale for buyers to drive the stock up. Yet the technical analysis reveals where the bullish trend stays solid—and where it starts to erode.

Buyers began to assert control during the prior week.

On August 18, Intel's stock dropped under its 100-day moving average and stayed beneath that long-term technical indicator as the price fell to $85.14 by August 24.

Last week, initial hints of a possible recovery emerged. The stock climbed above its 100-hour moving average, then at $91.27, on Thursday, and then moved above its 200-hour moving average, at $94.72, on Friday.

Breaching both hourly moving averages swung the short-term technical outlook back to the bullish side. Those moves did not assure further gains, but they handed buyers more influence and set the technical stage for the day's sharp advance.

The opening gap to the upside reinforces the bullish sentiment.

Intel opened with a gap up on Thursday, with the first-hour low at $100.35. Remaining above the key $100 mark was the initial encouraging sign.

The stock then rose above a swing area around $102.40 and the ascending 100-day moving average at $104.27. Intel has now stayed above that 100-day moving average for the last five hours of trading.

That matters because the 100-day moving average acts as a crucial boundary between bulls and bears. While the stock stays above that line, buyers maintain strong control.

What are the next levels to watch on the upside?

The immediate target is the August 13 swing high of $107.57. A lasting push above that would pave the way to the 50% retracement of the drop from Intel's June record high, which lies at $112.05.

Intel has not traded above those levels since July 9, making that zone a key upside target—and a probable test of whether the current momentum can evolve into a longer-lasting rally.

What could undermine the bullish outlook?

For bulls, the ascending 100-day moving average at $104.27 is now the nearest level defining risk. Holding above it keeps the technical view solidly bullish.

A drop back under the 100-day moving average would signal that some of Thursday's excitement is waning. The next key support would then be around the prior swing resistance at $102.40.

In summary, buyers are taking a stand. Above $104.27, they hold clear control, with $107.57 and then $112.05 as the next upside objectives. A fall back below $104.27—and especially below $102.40—would undermine the bullish technical setup.